Exchange Rates UK Research’s latest April 2026 survey of major investment banks shows the USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to remain close to current levels near 1.36 in the short term, before gradually easing towards the 1.30–1.34 region through 2027.
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.85651 (+0.17%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.60382 (+0.11%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.36244 (-0.09%)
The survey also reveals a notable split in outlooks, with some banks forecasting a return above 1.40, while others expect a broader Canadian dollar recovery to push the pair closer to 1.30 over time.
Latest Survey Suggests USD/CAD to Drift Lower Over Time
The majority of forecasts in the latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll point to modest USD/CAD downside beyond the near term, implying gradual Canadian dollar strength over time.
Banks including RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank and Westpac expect the pair to trend towards the low-1.30s into 2027, while Goldman Sachs also projects downside towards 1.32.
By contrast, Citi, Danske Bank and Rabobank remain more cautious on the Canadian dollar outlook, with forecasts holding closer to the 1.38–1.41 region.
The survey findings broadly align with the pair’s recent trend.
USD/CAD fell sharply through April, dropping more than 2% from highs near 1.39 to the mid-1.35s as the Canadian dollar benefited from stronger commodity prices and improving investor sentiment.
That move also extended a broader reversal from late-2025 highs above 1.40, with the pair now trading back near levels last seen around the middle of 2025.
However, despite the recent pullback, the longer-term trend still reflects a relatively strong US dollar environment compared with pre-2024 levels, highlighting how sensitive USD/CAD remains to shifts in global growth expectations and commodity markets.
Oil Prices and Central Banks Remain Key Drivers
The latest survey highlights how closely USD/CAD continues to track developments in oil prices and interest rate expectations.
Canada’s currency strengthened during April as rising crude prices improved the country’s trade outlook and boosted expectations that the Bank of Canada would maintain a relatively firm policy stance.
More recently, however, easing tensions surrounding the Iran conflict have pushed oil prices lower again, helping stabilise USD/CAD back around the 1.36 area.
Markets are also reassessing the outlook for central banks.
The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged in April and signalled that future policy moves are likely to remain gradual as policymakers balance slowing growth against inflation risks linked to higher energy prices.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s relatively firm stance and resilient US economic backdrop continue to underpin the US dollar and prevent a sharper USD/CAD decline.
This combination has helped keep the pair broadly rangebound in recent weeks after April’s sharp move lower.
USD/CAD Outlook: Stable Near-Term, But Forecasts Show Diverging Risks
The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey poll suggests the most likely scenario is for USD/CAD to remain relatively stable near current levels before gradually drifting lower through 2026 and 2027.
However, the widening spread of forecasts highlights ongoing uncertainty around the outlook for oil prices, inflation and global growth.
In practical terms:
More bullish USD/CAD forecasts assume lower oil prices and continued US dollar resilience
More bearish USD/CAD forecasts rely on stronger commodity markets and a broader recovery in the Canadian dollar
For now, the average forecast points to broad stability centred around the mid-1.30s.
