Macro update
Oil steady despite ceasefire extension: Brent held near $93 and WTI around $89 per barrel as prices stabilised following the recent rally, with markets assessing the impact of the US extending its ceasefire with Iran.
Hormuz disruption limits downside: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely halted, keeping around 20% of global energy flows constrained and providing support to oil prices despite easing geopolitical fears.
Uncertainty over peace talks: The ceasefire extension appears unilateral, with no clear agreement from Iran or Israel, leaving the outlook for negotiations and supply risks unresolved.
Equities resilient, risk sentiment holds: US futures moved higher while Asian indices edged lower, with investors largely looking through geopolitical tensions and focusing on prospects for a broader peace deal.
Dollar firm, Fed focus in view: The dollar hovered near a one-week high as Fed nominee Kevin Warsh adopted a slightly hawkish tone and strong US retail sales reinforced economic resilience.
Inventories point to tighter supply: API data showed a 4.5 million barrel draw in US crude stocks alongside declines in fuel inventories, adding underlying support to oil markets.
