As US President Donald Trump takes charge as the 47th president of the United States, all eyes are on how the Indian markets will pan out in trade today. Earlier in November, the news of his return to White House had kindled a party across the key Indian indices with the Sensex jumping over 900 points. Will there be an encore today?
US markets were shut on January 20 on account of Martin Luther Kind Junior Day but the US Stock Futures indicate a higher opening. While the initial euphoria was on the back of expectation of slew of Policy measures in favour of India, the concerns now are more about the ramifications of the Policies and overall geo-political equation going forward.
Uncertainty about policy announcement
Most market experts in India are taking a calibrated approach at the moment and believe that a wait and watch approach is the need of the hour. They see Budget as the bigger catalyst in the near-term. Ace Investor, Vijay Kedia does not see, “Trump taking charge as a big driver for the market at the moment. We will have to wait and watch and see the policy announcements that he brings about. Moreover, I don’t anticipate Trump policies to be completely anti-China either. I do not expect any big policies in favour of India either. We will have to calibrate the ramifications once Trump announces his policies.”
Arun Kejriwal, Market Veteran explained that “Donald Trump has made lot of statements during his campaign on raising Tariff yet to see exact extent. There are indications of 3-fold increase in tariff. Our markets in the current scenario are already dealing with FII selling, economy being under stress and slowdown concerns. The Budget is around the corner and there are expectation of cut in tax rates. That would be a big driver for the markets.”
He added that if there is an upmove in the markets after Budget, “the one single factor that can drive is the potential cut in tax rates. If the forthcoming Policy announcements from US are more damaging for markets like China, it could be indirectly a positive for our markets.”
Key levels to watch in the near-term
The benchmark indices ended on a muted note on Monday-January 20. The Nifty is hovering around the 23,300 levels.
Deven Choksey, Founder and MD of DRChoksey FinServ says, “The Nifty on the downside is well protected at 22800 and the rally to as much as 24800 is possible. Don’t think Trump would be a big driver for markets but overall if the Dollar Index moves significantly lower, the rupee’s outlook is what will decide the course of the market going forward.”
The dollar has plunged significantly in overnight trade. GIven the fact, the rupee has seen significant weakening, the dollar- rupee trade is also something that the market will be watching out for.
