The Indian rupee seems to be struggling for a sustained recovery. The rise from the low of 93.43 has failed to gather momentum. The domestic currency touched a high of 92.66 on Friday last week. But it has declined sharply in the past two days, giving away all the gains. The rupee fell to a low of 93.63, before closing the day at 93.49 on Tuesday.
The crude oil price jumping from around $90 per barrel on Friday to about $97 on Monday has dragged the rupee lower. The Brent crude oil price has been stable at around $95 so far this week. Oil prices have to drop below $90 and continue to sustain lower. Only then can the rupee get some support for a sustained recovery.
Rupee outlook
A near-term support for the rupee is at 93.70, which could be tested this week. A break below it can drag the rupee lower to 94.10-94.20 in a week or two.
On the other hand, if the rupee manages to reverse higher from around 93.70, it could see some recovery. In that case, 92.70-92.60 can be seen again. For this to happen, Brent Crude oil prices will have to drop below $90 in the coming days.
Mixed picture
On the charts, the immediate outlook for Brent Crude Oil ($95) is mixed. Support is around $88 and resistance is at $100. Broadly, prices can remain in the range of $88-$100 for some time now. A breakout on either side of $88-$100 will then determine the next leg of move.
A break below $88 can drag the price down to $82. This could be positive for the rupee. But if the oil price moves above $100, it can go up to $105 and even $110 again. That, in turn, will add more pressure to the domestic currency. We will have to wait and watch.
Fresh rise
Barring the fall to 97.63 on Friday last week, the dollar index (98.20) has been broadly stable above 98. The price action indicates the absence of fresh sellers to drag the index lower. That leaves the bias positive. Resistance is around 98.65. We expect the index to break this resistance and rise to 99.30-99.50 in the short term. Such a rise will also increase the chances of revisiting 100-100.50 on the upside eventually in the coming weeks. If the dollar index strengthens going forward, that could be negative for the rupee.
Published on April 21, 2026
