The Indian rupee is poised to open higher on Wednesday after a U.S. inflation reading reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will deliver a series of rate cuts this year.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.90-83.92 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.97 in the previous session.
U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in July, providing yet another indication that inflation continued to moderate.
The dollar declined against a basket of its major peers, U.S. Treasury yields dipped and equities rallied.
The data was “much needed” relief for the rupee, a currency trader at a bank said.
The rupee has been needing the Reserve Bank of India‘s help to avert a decline past 84.
The RBI in the last two session has been offering dollars at the 83.97 handle to support the local currency, which has been bogged down by persistent dollar demand from importers and traders looking to pare their long rupee bets.
“RBI will be hoping that the U.S. data provides breathing room to them,” the currency trader said.
“What will be important today is how the opening dip (on dollar/rupee pair) is handled by the markets.”
Fed rate cuts
Investors are now pricing in 108 basis points of Fed rate cuts this, about 10 bps higher than it was prior to the U.S. inflation data.
A rate cut at the September meeting is a near certainty, and it is a coin toss whether it will be 25 bps or 50 bps.
Investors now await the more important U.S. July consumer inflation data due later in the day.
“Yesterday’s PPI can’t be relied on to give too accurate a steer on today’s CPI numbers,” ING Bank said. However, “the direction has at least encouraged thoughts of a softer CPI print”.
