By Pranoy Krishna
BENGALURU, May 6 (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is expected to hold its ground against the U.S. dollar, according to a Reuters poll of currency analysts who have clung to the same view despite the currency consistently weakening amid persistent foreign capital outflows from domestic markets.
That steadfast outlook is even more striking this year as aggressive intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to stem the rupee’s decline has pushed its short dollar position to a record above $100 billion.
Yet the rupee was forecast to trade around the current rate of 95 per dollar over the coming year, according to the median view from 39 currency analysts polled between May 4 and May 6.
The Indian currency is down about 5% so far this year, following a similar decline last year. It has weakened by an average of 1% per month in 2026, hitting record lows in most weeks since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran started.
At that pace, the currency would reach the psychologically significant 100 per dollar rate within six months, a level many foreign exchange market experts say the government would prefer to avoid.
But no respondent had a forecast of 100 at any point in the coming one-, three-, six-, or 12-month horizons covered by Reuters polls.
“The rupee at 100 looks very near, but looking at what the RBI can do and what the government can…that could also be delayed,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, citing the political sensitivity of the level.
“They will try to circumvent it as much as possible and try to delay it in whatever way they know …because the opposition will obviously try to take advantage of that situation.”
Analysis of 12-month median forecasts since 2009 showed forecasts have been skewed towards rupee gains, whereas in the past decade, the currency has strengthened only once in a calendar year, in 2017.
Apoorva Javadekar, chief economist at Muthoot Fincorp, who correctly predicted the rupee’s end-April rate in the previous poll, has the most bearish forecast in the poll, predicting it will hit 99.50 in 12 months.
“I have been a little bit more pessimistic than other economists, who immediately jump to say, look, the domestic story and the consumption story are quite strong in India. That’s not true,” he said.
Despite strong economic data and authorities’ efforts to prop up the currency, the rupee has been hitting new lows as foreign investors have pulled more than $21 billion from Indian equities so far this year.
