Currency experts expect a broadly steady Polish Zloty through mid-2027, before election uncertainty increases the risk of renewed weakness.
The Euro to Polish Zloty (EUR/PLN) exchange rate edged lower towards 4.3132 on Wednesday, extending its retreat from late-August levels above 4.34 after a volatile period for regional currencies.
Foreign currency analysts at UniCredit expect the pair to settle close to 4.30 through mid-2027, with higher energy prices limiting Polish interest-rate cuts even as fiscal and political risks weigh on the Zloty.
“We expect EUR-PLN to remain stable around 4.30 until mid-2027 and political risks to lift the cross in the run up to general elections in autumn 2027.”
That forecast implies only a modest improvement for the Polish currency from current levels.
The latest EUR/PLN exchange rate was 4.3178 on Tuesday, leaving UniCredit’s projection less than 0.5% below that benchmark.
UniCredit says rising global bond yields, fiscal concerns and regional geopolitical tensions have increased selling pressure on Central and Eastern European currencies.
Our recent coverage of oil’s advance beyond $90 examined the Gulf supply disruptions behind part of that energy-price pressure.
Higher energy costs also make further monetary easing harder to justify.
“In Poland, the recent increase in energy prices limits the NBP’s scope to cut rates from the current 3.75%.”
We think this helps explain UniCredit’s relatively steady exchange-rate forecast: reduced scope for rate cuts offers the Zloty some protection while external risks persist.
The bank becomes more cautious as Poland approaches the 2027 election.
It sees considerable uncertainty over the next governing coalition following the split in the conservative PiS party and the strengthening of radical-right parties.
“The threat of a Eurosceptic ruling coalition represents a downside risk,” UniCredit said.
A weaker Zloty would push EUR/PLN higher, although the bank gives no specific post-election target.
It expects Poland’s deficit to exceed 7% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027, leaving the next government facing fiscal consolidation regardless of which parties take office.
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
