The Cuban peso’s depreciation shows no signs of slowing down. With less than three months remaining in the year, trends in the informal currency market suggest that the dollar and euro could close at new record levels, serving as indicators of Cuba’s worsening economic situation. As of this Sunday, the U.S. dollar (USD) is trading at 458 Cuban pesos (CUP), while the euro (EUR) has reached 520 CUP, according to figures from elTOQUE.
Back in July, these currencies were valued at 385 and 426, respectively. The jump over just 90 days exceeds 20% in both cases, underscoring the rapid pace of the peso’s devaluation. Should this monthly trend persist—ranging from an additional 10 to 15 pesos per month for the dollar and 12 to 18 for the euro—analysts anticipate that by the end of 2025, the market could see the dollar nearing 500 CUP and the euro approaching 580 CUP. This aligns with the predictions made by the majority of Cubans who responded to a CiberCuba survey in mid-September.
If these projections hold true, the Cuban peso would have lost approximately 30% of its value in just six months, marking the largest decline in nearly three years. This outlook is not merely mathematical; it reflects a structural context where the scarcity of official foreign currency, rampant inflation, and a lack of confidence in the government’s economic management are fueling demand in the parallel market.
The absence of an efficient formal system for buying and selling currencies has solidified the informal market as the only genuine reference for calculating prices, savings, and remittances. Meanwhile, the regime continues to offer vague promises of “reorganization” and “exchange rate stabilization” without providing details or tangible results.
As we pass the midpoint of 2025, the promise made by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz to implement a new “mechanism for currency management, control, and allocation” as part of the so-called “Government Program to correct distortions and revitalize the economy” remains unfulfilled.
Independent economists warn that any attempt to reverse this trend would require deep measures: restricting monetary issuance, attracting genuine foreign investment, and reopening currency circulation channels. However, the immediate outlook seems clear: the Cuban peso will continue to weaken, driven by distrust and economic stagnation.
Should the current dynamics persist, 2025 will close with the dollar and euro reaching unprecedented levels, leaving millions of Cubans facing a purchasing power increasingly eroded by inflation that is evident in every market, every store, and every currency exchange.
Impact of Currency Depreciation in Cuba
What are the current exchange rates for the dollar and euro in Cuba?
As of now, the U.S. dollar is trading at 458 CUP, while the euro is valued at 520 CUP.
How much has the Cuban peso devalued recently?
In the last 90 days, the Cuban peso has depreciated by over 20% against both the dollar and the euro.
What economic factors are influencing the peso’s decline?
The peso’s decline is driven by a lack of official foreign currency, rampant inflation, and a general distrust in the government’s economic management.
What measures could reverse the depreciation trend?
Reversing the trend would require restricting monetary issuance, attracting foreign investment, and reopening currency circulation channels.
