The dollar was hanging on to recent gains on Wednesday and trading near multi-week highs on a handful of major peers ahead of a Federal Reserve decision where traders expect the first of what could be several U.S. interest rate hikes.
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The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in coming months.
The Fed lifted the benchmark interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range, with new U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh joining a unanimous decision that effectively acknowledges the Trump administration’s inability so far to control inflation.
New policy projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers anticipate at least one more quarter-percentage-point hike by the end of this year, with only two of them seeing rates remaining stable from here. Warsh apparently again did not submit a rate projection.
The Fed’s new policy statement and economic projections show a central bank opening the door to tighter monetary policy through next year, with the policy rate rising to the 4.00%-4.25% range by the end of this year and ending 2027 at the same level.
“Today’s decisive hike—supported by all FOMC members and paired with an upgrade in the ‘dot plot’ summary of economic projections—should go a long way toward restoring confidence in the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation, and help remove a major headwind keeping the dollar restrained,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against major peers, was up 0.3% at 99.961, the highest in nearly five weeks.
“Today’s unanimous vote is the clearest signal yet that the Warsh Fed is unified, data-driven, and willing to act,” said David Krakauer, vice president of portfolio management at Mercer Advisors in San Diego.
The euro was 0.3% lower at $1.1502. Sterling fell 0.5% to $1.34155. British inflation accelerated to a five-month high in August, a day before the Bank of England is expected to leave rates steady.
Yen test
The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 155.49 yen.
The yen, which started September strong on a hawkish shift in expectations for Japanese interest rates, joint intervention by Japan and the U.S., and speculation that Japanese investors are repatriating capital, has floundered in recent sessions as the dollar has firmed.
Traders see an 80% chance that the Bank of Japan will hike rates on Friday, LSEG data show, and have priced in two 25-basis-point hikes by the end of January.
“The yen’s path will continue to depend heavily on interest rate differentials,” David A. Meier, economist at Julius Baer, said in a research note.
“We recently revised our USD/JPY forecasts to 155, reflecting some skepticism that the central bank can ultimately satisfy the pace of tightening currently priced in by markets,” he added.
A long rally in China’s yuan has lost momentum at around 6.71 to the dollar, but the currency is holding its gains despite a widening gap between low Chinese yields and rates elsewhere.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was little changed at $75,809, a day after tumbling 4% when the U.S. Senate did not advance comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation — a setback to digital asset companies.
