Managed foreign-exchange rates in the Persian Gulf have survived financial crises, oil-price crashes and military conflicts. But crude’s recent drop to historic lows is tempting investors to bet against currency pegs once again.
Forwards markets, where investors bet on the future value of currencies, suggest the Omani rial, which the government keeps pegged against the dollar, could drop more than 5% against the greenback in the next 12 months. Smaller falls are predicted in the local currencies of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait.
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