- UK sales rose by 0.3% in September.
- US retail sales jumped by 0.4% in September.
- Traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US presidential election.
The GBP/USD price analysis suggests a shift in sentiment as the pound recovers after a better-than-expected retail sales report. At the same time, the dollar remained steady after retail sales data in the previous session beat estimates.
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Sterling rebounded from recent lows after data showed that UK sales rose by 0.3% in September. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 0.3% decline in sales. A robust economy eases pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. Nevertheless, market participants still expect a rate cut in November and December.
Meanwhile, the pair fell in the previous session after the US released another upbeat economic report. Retail sales jumped by 0.4% in September, beating forecasts of a 0.3% increase. At the same time, core sales increased by 0.5%, above forecasts of 0.1%.
The US economy has shown resilience despite high interest rates. Consequently, Fed policymakers have become more cautious in their remarks. At the same time, markets have started pricing the likelihood of a Fed pause at the November meeting.
Elsewhere, traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US presidential election. The dollar has risen recently due to increasing bets for a Trump win. Such an outcome would likely mean increased tariffs and other changes driving inflation. Higher inflation would challenge the Fed’s current easing cycle and likely lead to a pause.
GBP/USD key events today
Traders will keep digesting the robust UK retail sales report as no more events are scheduled for today.
GBP/USD technical price analysis: Rebound pauses at solid resistance zone
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is on the brink of breaking above the 30-SMA resistance. The pair rebounded after making a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern at the recent swing low. This price action was a sign that bullish momentum was surging. Furthermore, it came after a bullish RSI divergence, which showed weaker bearish momentum.
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Nevertheless, bulls now face a strong barrier comprising the 30-SMA and the 1.3051 resistance level. Meanwhile, the RSI has broken above 50 and trades in bullish territory. A break above the resistance zone would allow GBP/USD to revisit the 1.3201 resistance. Otherwise, the downtrend will reach 1.2950.
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