The Pound to Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate ended July at 128.63 after a volatile month carried the pair above 130.80 before part of the advance was reversed.
The Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision now provides the week’s main event risk for GBP/INR.
Pound to Rupee (GBP/INR): 128.6262 (-0.14%)
July: +2.55%
July High: 130.8147
WEEKLY RECAP:
The Pound to Rupee exchange rate (GBP/INR) recovered during the closing sessions of July after falling towards 127.28 at the start of the week.
Pound Sterling retained support following the Bank of England’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%.
Three policymakers voted for an immediate increase, although Governor Andrew Bailey played down the urgency of another move. Scotiabank noted that UK yield spreads continue to provide Sterling with underlying support.
The Indian Rupee finished the week more strongly.
Persistent Reserve Bank of India intervention, a softer US Dollar and a modest retreat in oil prices helped the currency record its strongest weekly advance since March.
The RBI’s June measures have now attracted more than $40 billion in foreign-currency inflows, providing policymakers with another tool for stabilising the Rupee.
However, India remains vulnerable to energy costs. Brent crude posted a sharp July increase, keeping inflation and the import bill firmly in focus.
Near-Term GBP/INR Forecast: RBI Decision and Technical Levels in Focus
For Sterling, Monday’s final manufacturing PMI is followed by Wednesday’s services PMI and Thursday’s construction survey.
For the Rupee, Wednesday is the key session. India’s services PMI is followed by the RBI policy announcement, with most economists expecting the repo rate to remain at 5.25%.
A neutral hold accompanied by confidence in capital inflows could support the Rupee. A dovish assessment of growth risks or renewed concern over oil prices would leave it exposed.
Technically, GBP/INR is trading close to its 20-day moving average near 128.60 and above the 50-day average around 127.70.
The 20-day line has also moved back above the 50-day average, giving the chart a mildly positive bias.
Initial resistance sits at 129.00–129.20, followed by 130.00 and July’s 130.81 peak. Support is located around 128.00 and 127.30.
A sustained break above 129.20 could reopen 130.00, while a close below the 50-day average would expose 127.00.
In the near-term, Exchange Rates UK Research forecast that the Pound to Rupee exchange rate will trade within the 127.00–130.50 range.
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
