Recent comments from Fed officials have been dovish, with the focus shifting from inflation to growth concerns. Fed officials are confident that inflation is moving towards 2% and are watching growth risks.
Strong data this week could reduce market expectations for rate cuts, while weak data or a softening labor market could increase the case for easing.
$GBPUSD meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and seems vulnerable to sliding further.
Bets for smaller #Fed rate cuts revive the #USD demand and exert pressure on the pair.
The technical setup favours bears and supports prospects for a further depreciating move.— Chelton Wealth – Markets (@Xs2Chelton) October 29, 2024
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in 25 basis points of rate cuts in November and December.
Meanwhile September’s JOLTS Job Openings data is due out today and is expected to show a slight decrease to 7.99 million from 8.04 million in August, which could be a sign of a cooling labor market.
UK Autumn Forecast Statement Could Shape GBP Sentiment
The Pound is on hold before the UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement on Wednesday. This will be the first budget from a Labour government in over 15 years and expectations are high for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to bring in policies to stabilise the economy and public services.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he will raise taxes to prevent austerity and support public services, especially the NHS. Reeves has echoed this saying we need to reverse a decade of underinvestment in healthcare. The spending commitments and tax changes will be watched closely by the market as it will impact the BoE’s policy decision.
A recent Reuters poll suggests the BoE will cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% on November 7, the second rate cut of the year. The BoE left rates unchanged at 5% in September but new fiscal policies will impact future rate moves.
📈 #GBPUSD rises above 1.2970 ahead of key US data—Q3 GDP and October NFP are in focus, with traders watching closely for signs that will shape the Fed’s next moves.
A 25bps rate cut is expected in November and December. #GBPUSD #Forex #Fed #NFP #Q3GDP #Markets
— Farah Shariff (@shariff_farah) October 28, 2024
GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Triple Top Capping Gains at $1.2989
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is under pressure within a descending channel, with robust resistance around $1.2989. This level has been tested multiple times, forming a triple-top pattern that suggests a cap on the pair’s upward momentum.
The triple-top formation reinforces the resistance at this level, making it a critical barrier for Sterling bulls.
Should the pair manage a decisive breakout above $1.2989, bullish sentiment could drive the GBP/USD to the next resistance at $1.3030, with potential for further gains toward the $1.3100 level.
These levels align with previous highs and represent psychological resistance points. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.2939, with additional levels at $1.2904 and $1.2868 providing further downside protection if selling pressure intensifies.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned near $1.2985, acting as another resistance layer, which could maintain the downward channel unless strong buying pressure emerges.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49.33, suggesting neutral momentum and leaving room for movement in either direction based on upcoming data releases and market sentiment shifts.
Key Insights:
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Resistance at $1.2989: GBP/USD faces strong resistance at $1.2989 within a descending channel, reinforced by a triple-top pattern.
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Potential Breakout Targets: A breakout above $1.2989 could lead to targets at $1.3030 and possibly $1.3100, where previous highs align with psychological resistance.
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50-day EMA and RSI Indicators: The 50-day EMA near $1.2985 adds downside pressure, while the RSI at 49.33 remains neutral, indicating potential volatility ahead based on economic data.
This week’s data and policy statements will be pivotal for GBP/USD, with investors closely monitoring both the Fed’s approach in the US and fiscal policy developments in the UK. A breakout or breakdown from the current levels could set the tone for the pair in the coming weeks.