The Indian rupee slumped to a fresh all-time low of 96.25 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, weighed down by soaring crude oil prices, global uncertainty, and continued strength in the American currency.
Mumbai: The Indian rupee opened weak in the interbank foreign exchange market and quickly fell further to touch 96.25 against the US dollar, marking its lowest-ever level.
The domestic currency had already closed at a record low of 95.81 on Friday after slipping below the 96-per-dollar mark during intraday trade. Forex traders said the rupee is under heavy pressure due to rising global risks and persistent demand for dollars.
Why is the rupee falling?
Analysts pointed to several factors hurting the rupee simultaneously.
The biggest pressure is coming from rising crude oil prices. Brent crude climbed above USD 111 per barrel amid continuing tensions linked to Iran and fears over supply disruptions.
India imports most of its crude oil, so higher oil prices increase the country’s dollar outflow, putting direct pressure on the rupee.
At the same time:
- The US dollar has strengthened globally
- Geopolitical tensions remain elevated
- Foreign investor flows remain volatile
- Emerging market currencies are facing broader pressure
Together, these factors have created a difficult environment for the Indian currency.
What are experts saying?
CR Forex Advisors Managing Director Amit Pabari said elevated crude oil prices, global uncertainty, and dollar strength continue to remain major risks for the rupee.
He added that the government and the Reserve Bank of India have already started taking measures to manage the situation before conditions worsen further.
According to market experts:
- 94.80–95.10 could act as a support zone for USD/INR
- 96.00–96.50 is now seen as a major resistance range
Some analysts warned that if oil prices continue rising and geopolitical tensions persist, the rupee could weaken even further.
Could the rupee touch 100 per dollar?
Treasury expert Anil Kumar Bhansali warned that the rupee may remain under severe pressure if oil prices stay elevated.
He said only easing geopolitical tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly reduce pressure on the dollar-rupee pair. According to him, the rupee could even approach the 100-per-dollar mark if fresh measures are not introduced to increase dollar inflows into India.
The rupee pressure comes just days after the government increased import duties on precious metals including gold and silver.
The duty hike was aimed at reducing non-essential imports and controlling forex outflows.
The government has also imposed import restrictions on silver under a licensed regime to help manage pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Stock markets also under pressure
The weakness in the rupee coincided with sharp declines in domestic equity markets.
Early Monday trade saw:
- Sensex falling more than 800 points
- Nifty dropping over 230 points
Despite the volatility, foreign institutional investors remained net buyers for a second straight session on Friday.
Forex reserves rise
India’s foreign exchange reserves, however, showed improvement.
According to the Reserve Bank of India, forex reserves increased by USD 6.295 billion to USD 696.988 billion during the week ended May 8.
The rise came after reserves had dropped sharply in the previous reporting week.
Published: 18 May 2026, 10:54 am IST
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