The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate closed Friday near 1.1521, with the pair under pressure after losing ground through March as safe-haven demand boosted the US dollar.
Rabobank notes that the dominant theme has been strong USD demand, with investors favouring liquidity amid heightened geopolitical risks linked to the Middle East conflict.
The bank adds that shifting central bank expectations have also driven volatility, with the euro briefly supported by a more hawkish ECB before losing momentum again.
In the near term, Rabobank warns that further escalation in the crisis could trigger another sharp drop in EUR/USD.
“We prefer to keep our 1-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.14 for now.”
Looking further ahead, the bank expects a gradual recovery, supported by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.
Rabobank forecasts EUR/USD around 1.17 on a 6-month view and closer to 1.18 on a 12-month horizon, although it cautions that the Eurozone economy is likely to be hit harder by the energy shock than the US.
EUR/USD — Key Rate Highlights:
Current Rate: 1.152149 (03 Apr 2026, 22:29 UTC)
Daily Move: -0.17% (-0.002003)
Latest Close: 1.152149 (03 Apr)
April Range: 1.150977 – 1.162597
April Performance: -0.45%
12-Month Range: 1.106540 – 1.207544
Recent Trend: EUR/USD drifting lower in early April, extending the softer tone seen since late March
Disclaimer: For information only, not investment advice. This EUR to USD forecast summarises and interprets third-party research; views expressed are those of the original source and may not fully reflect the source’s complete analysis. Neither the source nor we accept liability for reliance on this interpretation.
