The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.10% at the latest policy meeting, in line with consensus forecasts.
The Australian dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) was unable to make headway in immediate response to the decision and traded around 0.7090.
ING considers that AUD/USD will struggle to make headway in the short term, especially with fragile risk appetite. It also considers that extensive long Australian dollar positions increase the risk of a corrective retreat. Nevertheless, it now forecasts that AUD/USD will strengthen to 0.74 by the end of 2026.
According to ING the 5-4 vote for the decision dampened immediate currency support, although it notes that the minority called for a delay until May rather than not backing a rate hike.
The bank sees near-term risks of an AUD/USD retreat to 0.70 amid Middle East stresses and risk aversion.
From a medium-term view, however, the bank expects that the Australian dollar will benefit from high yields and solid fundamentals. ING also expects that there will be wider losses for the US currency which will underpin AUD/USD.
AUD/USD — Key Exchange Rate Highlights:
Current Rate: 0.706207 (18 Mar 2026, 12:55 UTC)
Daily Move: -0.66% (-0.004682)
Latest Close: 0.710869 (17 Mar)
March Range: 0.694506 – 0.718542
March Performance: +0.75%
12-Month Range: 0.591400 – 0.718542
Recent Trend: AUD/USD pulling back after a strong mid-March rally, with recent gains partially reversing
Disclaimer: For information only, not investment advice. This AUDUSD forecast summarises and interprets third-party research; views expressed are those of the original source and may not fully reflect the source’s complete analysis. Neither the source nor we accept liability for reliance on this interpretation.
