Lamine Yamal projections: How far can Barca, Spain star go?

Heading into the Euro 2024 semifinals, France‘s left-back Theo Hernández had been, for my money, the best player of the tournament. He had made some stellar attacking contributions, especially considering how little his team was actually scoring, but more importantly for France’s purposes, he had also been nearly perfect in defense, winning 67% of his duels and quietly quashing a number of decent attacking opportunities for opponents. If anyone had a chance at quieting Spain‘s precocious, young winger Lamine Yamal, it was Hernandez.

Technically, he did somewhat dampen Yamal’s effectiveness. After nine shot attempts, nine chances created, 29 progressive carries and three successful one-on-ones in the box in recent matches against Georgia and Germany — otherworldly totals for two matches — Yamal managed just three shots, two chances created, five progressive carries and no successful one-on-ones.

Statistically, it was a merely good performance instead of something superhuman. However, in the 21st minute, Yamal drifted away from Hernandez into the middle of the pitch and, given too much space* by midfielder Adrien Rabiot, curled an absolutely gorgeous, technically perfect shot into goal from 26 meters.

That goal tied the match. Perhaps a bit shaken by the audacity of what just happened, France’s defense got scrambled just four minutes later and left Dani Olmo alone to knock in the go-ahead goal on a higher-percentage shot. Spain won, 2-1, and Yamal added insult to injury with a note-perfect tactical foul on Hernandez — himself an excellent tactical fouler — in the 91st minute.

*OK, that’s actually unfair to Rabiot. There wasn’t much space, and Yamal was 26 meters from goal. The shot was worth 0.02 xG! He was basically daring the youngster to airmail a shot and end a threat. It just didn’t quite work out that way.

Yamal finished Euro 2024 with that goal, four assists (ranking first overall at the tournament), 19 chances created (first), 2.6 expected points added (xPVA) from on-ball actions (first), 67 progressive carries (fifth) and five successful one-on-ones in the box (sixth). He assisted the first goal in Spain’s eventual final victory over England, struck by their other incredible winger, Nico Williams. Yamal and Williams were relentless sources of optimism and ball progression for a team that, in recent tournaments, had been susceptible to horizontal movement and staid ball possession.

It’s fine that Yamal’s countrymate Rodri won the Player of the Tournament award instead of Yamal — Rodri should win the Ballon d’Or, too, considering he’s been a part of just one loss in his past 79 matches for club and country — but Yamal legitimately might have been the second-best player. (Sorry, Theo, I guess that makes you’re third?) It’s pretty incredible considering it was his first major tournament, and it’s utterly dumbfounding considering he turned only 17 years old a day before the final.

Over the past year, Yamal made what should have been an impossible transition from “good for a 16-year old” to “good” to “maybe one of the best wingers in the world.” How far can he go from here?

Where Yamal is right now

Within our TruMedia database, which features StatsPerform data from all sorts of leagues and international competitions stretching back to the early-2010s (plus World Cup data going back to 1966), it is impossible to find a good comparison for what Yamal did in his first professional season. He played too many minutes and did too many impressive things.

(Source: TruMedia)

Yamal played over 1,000 more minutes than an exciting prospect named Jude Bellingham did, and Bellingham was then playing at second-division Birmingham City. He contributed more than double the number of combined goals and assists as new Real Madrid addition Endrick, and Endrick was still playing in Brazil last season. Yamal plays for one of the biggest clubs in the world and one of the most talented countries in Europe.

To find even a slightly sensible comparison, you have to go back to when Wayne Rooney scored six Premier League goals with four assists for Everton in 2002-03 — he turned out to be pretty good, yeah? — but even Rooney turned 17 early that season. Before turning 17, Yamal had five goals and five assists in LaLiga play, had scored twice in Spanish cup competitions, produced two assists in Champions League play and had scored three goals with six assists in just 801 minutes for his national team. We might actually have to go all the way back to Pele to find a genuine comp here.

(Granted, even Pele’s first major international contributions — six goals in the 1958 World Cup — came at age 17, but he was lighting up Brazil’s domestic league a year earlier. I think we can give him the benefit of the doubt.)

The sheer volume of minutes Yamal played tells you everything you need to know about his physical readiness, and the increasingly excellent numbers he posted tell you about his potential. We can no longer proclaim “He’s 16! Can you believe someone is capable of this at 16?” while watching him play, but he has a chance to be one of the best wingers in the sport for a very, very long time.

The value of switching play

Rarely does a chart speak such volumes as the one above, comparing Yamal to every other recent 16-year-old. But this one comes pretty close:

(Source: TruMedia)

Spain’s statistical profile at the Euros was approximately what we’ve come to expect from them. Their possession (58.0%) and pass completion rates (89.5%) were appropriately high, and their progressive carry averages (91.2 per 90 minutes, second-most), driven primarily by center-backs (Aymeric Laporte averaged 19.7, Robin Le Normand 9.6, Nacho 9.6), was exactly what you get used to seeing from heavy-possession teams. But their attacking numbers — 2.1 goals per 90 minutes (second), 16.6 shots (second), 6.0 shots on goal (fourth) — were something a bit different, and so much of their success stemmed from the one-on-one capabilities of Yamal and Williams.

Since the ball was usually on the left side of the pitch, bouncing between Laporte (the left-sided center-back), left-back Marc Cucurella and Rodri in midfield, a lot of the passes Williams received were of the shorter variety. But Spain’s ability to hit the pressure-release valve and send long switch-of-play passes to Yamal, and Yamal’s ability to make the most of one-on-ones in space, were absolute game changers. In addition to all their heavy-possession principles, Spain also created the most counterattacking shots (1.5 per 90 minutes) and averaged 2.5 shots per game of 0.2 xG or greater (third).

Dominating the ball often means that you struggle to create high-value opportunities against packed-in defenses. Spain combined ball domination with verticality and quality chance creation in a really unique and exciting way. As important as Williams was in that regard, Yamal may have been even more important.

None of this was particularly surprising if you watched Barcelona this past season

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To watch Barcelona in 2023-24 was to feel strangely conflicted. Part of that undoubtedly had to do with the soap opera unfolding around now-former manager Xavi — he announced he was quitting because of the pressure and misery of the job, then he was successfully convinced to stay before getting fired weeks later by club president Joan Laporta — but most of it had to do with Yamal. After seeing thrilling Barca youngsters like Pedri, Gavi and Ansu Fati all break down with injuries after seeing a heavy load of minutes at a very young age, we watched Yamal take on even more minutes at an even younger age than any of them.

To a degree, at least, Xavi didn’t have a choice but to play Yamal; part of that was because of a run of injuries the team was dealing with, and part was because, for large portions of the winter and spring, it sure seemed like Yamal was Barcelona’s most dangerous and important attacker.

In the 2023-24 season, Yamal ended up playing 2,881 minutes in all competitions for Barca (sixth-most on the team) and generated 8.6 xA (second), 7.5 xPVA (second), 49 chances created (third), seven assists (fourth), 82 shot attempts (fourth), 25 shots on goal (fifth) and six goals (sixth). He also won 21 one-on-ones in the box, more than twice as many as anyone else on the team. His 18 in league play were the third-most in Europe’s Big Five leagues: only AC Milan‘s Rafael Leão and Manchester City‘s Jérémy Doku had more.

(Source: TruMedia)

A left-footed right winger, Yamal’s role ended up being like a combination of Leao’s and Doku’s (both of whom are right-footed left wingers).

• Goals: Leao 9, Yamal 5, Doku 4
• Assists: Leao 9, Doku 8, Yamal 5
• One-on-ones per match: Doku 10.0, Yamal 7.1, Leao 5.7
• Duel win percentage: Doku 56.6%, Yamal 55.7%, Leao 53.5%
• xG per match: Leao 0.36, Yamal 0.22, Doku 0.17
• Percent of shots worth at least 0.2 xG: Leao 23.4%, Yamal 11.4%, Doku 2.6%
• xA per match: Doku 0.34, Leao 0.29, Yamal 0.27
• Progressive carries per match: Doku 19.1, Leao 10.9, Yamal 10.7

In his better moments, Yamal combined Doku’s ability to take on defenders with Leao’s ability to create high-quality shots for himself and others. His 10 combined goals and assists were lower than both players’, but here’s where we can play the “He was only 16!” card. Leao, 25, is entering his athletic prime, and while Doku is still quite young (22), he’s still got five years on Yamal. At age 16, Doku played 111 minutes at Anderlecht with no goals or assists, and Leao was still developing in Sporting Lisbon’s youth system.

What now?

When you play that many minutes at that young of an age, and for a club like Barcelona that’s recently seen so many younger players suffering injuries, it certainly offers a sense of foreboding. That dread is reinforced by Ryan Sessegnon’s presence on the chart of 16-year -lds above.

Sessegnon played 1,594 minutes for Fulham at age 16 in 2016-17, scoring five goals with two assists. He had already moved to Tottenham Hotspur in a relatively big-money deal before his 20th birthday. But he missed large portions of the 2019-20, 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons with injury troubles, including a number of different hamstring injuries — exactly the type of lingering muscle issue we tend to associate with early overuse.

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If we dip back into the TruMedia database, we find 16 recent players who recorded at least 5,000 minutes of action before their 19th birthdays, as Yamal likely will rather early in 2024-25 (even well in advance of his 18th birthday). Two were goalkeepers — Gianluigi Donnarumma, now of PSG, and Alban Lafont, now of Nantes — but of the 14 outfield players, the injury history is mixed but worrisome.

Sessegnon, Pedri and Gavi have all missed extensive time, as mentioned. After cracking the rotation early on at Southampton, Manchester United‘s Luke Shaw has missed at least 20 games in a season six times in 10 years. Defensive midfielder Lewis Cook, who broke through at 17 for Leeds United in 2014-15, suffered chronic ankle issues in the years that followed and had suffered two cruciate ligament tears by age 24.

Defender Kik Pierie, acquired at 18 by Ajax after a breakthrough at Heerenveen, has missed 105 matches in the past three years, according to Transfermarkt, and moved to Excelsior Rotterdam last season. Florian Wirtz scored his first goal for Bayer Leverkusen shortly after his 17th birthday in 2020 and played brilliantly until suffering an ACL tear in March 2022.

Of course, Wirtz has since resumed his domination of the Bundesliga and despite injuries, Shaw still became Gareth Southgate’s first-choice left back for England. Others who topped that 5,000-minute mark — Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham, Bayern Munich‘s Alphonso Davies, Real Madrid’s Eduardo Camavinga, Bayern’s Matthijs de Ligt, Real Madrid’s Rodrygo (hmm, I’m sensing a theme here), Chelsea‘s Angelo, Almeria’s Kaiky — have been mostly fine from an injury standpoint. Or they at least haven’t been bothered by any obvious, chronic issues.

It’s not a guarantee, in other words, that Yamal will succumb to constant injury problems, and even if he gets hurt at some point he could rebound just fine. If the injury bug is reasonably kind, he’s quite obviously on pace to become one of the best wingers in the world.

Going back to Yamal’s play for Barcelona, we can pretty clearly see where he still needs to improve as compared to the world’s best right wingers. His ball progression is already where it needs to be, but the scoring opportunities still lack a bit.

(Source: TruMedia)

Yamal’s 0.41 goals and assists per 90 minutes and 0.49 xA+xG per 90 are both good figures, but he didn’t quite match what stars like Phil Foden, Leroy Sané, Bukayo Saka and Mohamed Salah did in 2023-24. That’s to be expected considering the age gap, of course, but it also points to what needs to come next in his development. His ability to beat defenders one-on-one and advance the ball into dangerous areas is already either elite or very close to it, but turning those wins and that ball position into actual goals is what separates the very good players from the elite.

Of course, if his performance at the Euros (0.89 G+A and 0.69 xG+xA per 90) is a sign of what’s to come, well … my condolences to the rest of Europe.