This weekend, Cuba’s informal currency market continues to experience historically high exchange rates, with the U.S. dollar valued at 405 Cuban pesos (CUP), the euro at 450 CUP, and the freely convertible currency (MLC) at 195 CUP, as reported by the independent platform elTOQUE. However, social media posts suggest that the pressure on the Cuban peso could escalate in the coming days.
According to these posts, some sellers are pricing the dollar between 370 and 450 CUP, while the euro is trading from 420 to 470 CUP, and the MLC fluctuates between 170 and 215 CUP. These ranges indicate a market under tension, with anticipated increases that surpass current representative rates.
Notably, the euro holds its position as the most expensive currency on the street, boosted by its international strength and the difficulty of obtaining cash. The U.S. dollar, although slightly cheaper, remains the most widely circulated currency in the country, particularly among those who receive remittances and depend on travel.
Meanwhile, the MLC continues to lose trust, yet it retains significance due to its necessity for purchases in increasingly depleted state-run foreign currency stores. The detected offer ranges reveal an unmet demand, with buyers willing to pay prices above daily references.
In this scenario, analysts predict that the dollar might soon breach the 410 CUP mark, while the euro approaches the 470 CUP threshold, reflecting the rapid depreciation of the Cuban peso. The persistent shortage of foreign currency in official channels and the scarcity in exchange houses fuel an increasingly volatile parallel market.
For many families, these rates mean that a monthly salary barely covers a fraction of essential needs, exacerbating the purchasing power crisis on the island. The behavior in the forthcoming weeks will depend on the regime’s ability to contain inflation and ensure real access to foreign currency, a goal that currently seems out of reach.
Understanding Cuba’s Informal Currency Market
Why is the euro more expensive than the dollar in Cuba’s informal market?
The euro’s higher cost is due to its international strength and the difficulty in obtaining it in cash form, which makes it more valuable on the Cuban street.
What factors are driving the depreciation of the Cuban peso?
Factors include the scarcity of foreign currency in official channels, inflation, and the limited access to foreign currency, all contributing to the peso’s rapid depreciation.
How does the informal market impact Cuban families?
High exchange rates in the informal market mean that a family’s monthly income may not suffice to meet essential needs, worsening the purchasing power crisis on the island.
