What decline in Canadian travel means for Arizona’s economy

But the newly retired Quebec City, Canada resident doesn’t plan to return this year, citing the political climate in the U.S. Instead, she plans to visit the French Antilles and explore parts of her country she hasn’t visited yet like Newfoundland, Labrador and northern Quebec.

“I am making this choice in solidarity with all Canadians who will lose their jobs due to tariffs and the betrayal of the American administration by their failure to comply with the Free Trade Agreement,” Martel said, her response translated from French.

She’s just one of a growing number of Canadians who plan to break their traditions of traveling south to Sun Belt states like Arizona to flee the freezing winters of their homeland. A study from the market research firm Longwoods International found about 80% of Canadians who canceled plans to visit the U.S. cited tariffs and economic policies as a factor in changing their plans. Another 71% cited political statements from U.S. leaders.

In response, several airlines with flights between the U.S. and Canada said they’re reviewing their routes and adjusting for demand. One airline, ultra-low-cost Flair Airlines, suspended seasonal flights to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport after ending its winter season earlier than scheduled, ending Calgary and Edmonton flights on April 8 and ending Vancouver flights on April 22.

Demand for US travel is in decline as Canadians feel ‘unwelcome’

About 20.4 million Canadians visited the U.S. in 2024, responsible for $20.5 billion in spending that supports 140,000 American jobs, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

The association found Canadian travel to the U.S. during the first six months of 2025 dropped by almost 20%.

The number of Canadians returning from travel to the U.S. via automobile declined sharply from January to August 2025, down almost 33% from the same period in 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Fewer Canadians also returned from the U.S. by air, down 17% in the first eight months of 2025.

Experts attribute the declining demand for Canadian tourist visits to the U.S. in part to Canadian travelers’ negative sentiment of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods and his calls to annex Canada as the 51st state. Sliding demand also coincided with heightened scrutiny at the border and Canada issuing new advisories to its citizens about U.S. travel.

This spring, the Trump administration introduced new requirements for Canadians visiting the U.S. longer than 30 days to register with immigration authorities. And on Oct. 1, Canada warned LGBTQ+ travelers with a gender-neutral “X” identifier on their passports that they may face entry restrictions or be asked to provide sex or gender information identifying as male or female when traveling in the U.S.

Some Canadians are also canceling their U.S. travel plans because the Canadian dollar is weak against the U.S. dollar, making it difficult for Canadians to afford a U.S. visit, said Miles Zimbaluk, CEO of Canada to USA, a company that offers cross-border services for Canadians traveling to the U.S., including Arizona. (Longwoods International found about 45% of Canadians who canceled plans to travel to the U.S. canceled because of the weak Canadian dollar.)

The trade war, Trump’s rhetoric and the weak Canadian dollar have made Canadians feel “unwelcome” in the U.S., said Zimbaluk, whose company works with Canadians who plan to travel to or buy homes in Arizona.

“Canada is a proud country,” Zimbaluk said. “I don’t think they like the tone … the way it’s been handled is extremely negative, especially coming from our closest ally.”

Airlines say Canadians are increasingly booking flights to Mexico and the Caribbean for warm-weather travel instead of the U.S., and their route expansions in recent months reflect those trends.

Travel: This airline is leaving Phoenix Sky Harbor with final flight in 2026

How many Canadians visit Arizona?

Arizona experienced record numbers of Canadian travelers in the late 2010s, peaking at 975,000 visitors in 2018. Then, Canadian tourism plummeted during the COVID-19 pandemic to a low of 257,400 visitors.

Arizona began to recover from the pandemic lows over the last two years, with airlines resuming routes between Phoenix and Canada that were suspended during the pandemic. The most recent data from the Arizona Office of Tourism showed 852,200 Canadians visited Arizona in 2024, about 30,000 more than in 2023.

Joshua Coddington, a spokesperson for the Arizona Office of Tourism, did not have Canadian visitor data for 2025 to date available. But the national outlook for Canadians’ travel to the U.S. and other regional indicators, such as fewer passengers taking flights between Phoenix and Canada, suggest 2025 will be a down year.

“International traffic is slowing compared to past gains,” said Sky Harbor spokesman Greg Roybal. “We continue to work with our airline partners as Canadian tourism and business travel is very important to our region.”

WestJet, Air Canada and Flair all recorded fewer passengers between Phoenix and Canada in the first nine months of 2025. Overall travel between Canada and Sky Harbor from January to September 2025 was 645,305 passengers, down from 672,960 during the same period in 2024, according to the airport’s passenger traffic data.

The tallies include WestJet, Air Canada, Flair and Porter Airlines, whose Phoenix-Toronto route launched in October 2024. The 2024 count also included the final two months of ultra-low-cost Lynx Air, whose Phoenix-Calgary route ended when the carrier shut down in February 2024.

Here’s what Sky Harbor’s passenger most recent data showed:

“Canadians are not abandoning the U.S., but they are reducing their travel, and eventually, demand for U.S. travel will return,” said Porter Airlines spokesperson Robyn van Teunenbroek, whose airline recently introduced two new seasonal routes between Phoenix and Canada.

Why is Canadian travel important to Arizona?

Canada plays a key role in Arizona’s tourism and economy. Metro Phoenix’s mild winter climate attracts a large number of Canadian tourists and snowbirds seeking refuge from snowy and icy winters. Arizona is one of the biggest markets for Canadian snowbirds, along with other warm-weather states like Florida.

Arizona welcomed 822,500 overnight visitors from Canada in 2023, the most recent year with available numbers. These visitors contributed a total of $775 million in visitor spending that year, said Coddington, the Arizona Office of Tourism spokesman.

About 36% of Visa credit card spending in Arizona by international travelers during the first three months of 2024 came from Canadians, an AOT report showed.

On average, Canadian travelers spend nine nights at their destination, he said. Canadians who visit Arizona for 30 days or less are considered overnight visitors. Coddington’s data doesn’t include snowbirds, anyone who visits 31 days or more.

The Canada Arizona Business Council estimates snowbirds have a $1.4 billion economic impact in Arizona each year, separate from the economic impact of overnight visitors.

“Fortunately for us, many of those visitors choose to stay with us right here in Arizona and spend some portion of that money here,” Coddington said. “Of course, any reduction in visitors to Arizona from Canada would be felt by our state, from the airlines to hotels to transportation to restaurants to supermarkets and attractions.”

Airlines cut service between Canada and US

One way the impact is already being felt is in reductions in accessibility via air travel. Airlines have cut flights and suspended routes because of below-normal demand.

United Airlines canceled a planned new route between Toronto and Los Angeles. WestJet scrapped plans for Calgary-New York City and Edmonton-Orlando routes.

Flair Airlines cut short its 2024-25 season at multiple U.S. airports, including Phoenix, where it flew to Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. Staff later confirmed to The Republic that Flair would not return to Sky Harbor for the 2025-26 season. Besides Phoenix, Flair suspended service from Nashville, New York City and Palm Springs.

How the drop in Canadian tourism is affecting Sky Harbor

There were about 9% fewer scheduled seats on flights arriving in Phoenix from Canada in April 2025 compared to the start of the year, according to a study from aviation data company Visual Approach Analytics.

The Republic reached out to all four Canadian carriers with service out of Sky Harbor — Flair, Air Canada, WestJet and Porter Airlines — to find out how routes out of Phoenix are being affected by lower demand for Canadian travel to the U.S.

Flair cut short the 2024-25 season for its flights between Phoenix and three Canadian cities: Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. Flights to Calgary and Edmonton ended April 8, while flights to Vancouver ended April 22, airline spokesperson Kim Bowie said.

Two months later, airline officials confirmed it would not be returning to Phoenix for 2025-26 after The Arizona Republic found Phoenix was no longer a selectable destination for booking flights on Flair’s website.

Flair began serving Sky Harbor during the 2023-24 winter season. It formerly operated seasonal flights to Canada out of Mesa Gateway Airport and Tucson International Airport, but ended service at both airports in 2023.

Air Canada, Canada’s flag carrier and largest airline, flies to three cities from Phoenix: Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. A spokesperson for the airline said Canadian demand for U.S. flights “remains a very fluid situation, and we are very closely monitoring events,” but did not say whether routes out of Phoenix would be cut.

How PHX Sky Train can get you around Sky Harbor Airport faster

Traverse Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport from the 44th Street station to the 24th Street station to the Rental Car Center. How to ride the PHX Sky Train.

The Republic

WestJet, Canada’s second-largest airline doesn’t plan to suspend routes out of Phoenix, but airline spokesperson Julia Brunet did say that staff recently noticed Canadian travelers are favoring Mexico and the Caribbean over the U.S. for “sun destinations.”

“The airline remains focused on knowing where people want to go, and we will continue to fly where there is demand,” Brunet said. “Reciprocal visitation from both Canadian and U.S. tourists is important for the tourism industry, as it drives economic stimulus on both sides of the border.”

WestJet operates the most Canadian routes out of Sky Harbor, flying to Calgary, Alberta; Edmonton, Alberta; Kelowna, British Columbia; Regina, Saskatchewan; Saskatoon, Saskatchewan; Vancouver; and Winnipeg, Manitoba. It flew more than 520,000 passengers from Sky Harbor in 2024, the most of any Canadian airline.

WestJet and its now-defunct low-cost subsidiary Swoop also flew out of Mesa Gateway Airport until 2023.

Low-cost carrier Porter was the first airline to announce a Canadian route network expansion out of Phoenix during Trump’s second presidency: seasonal flights to Vancouver and Ottawa, Ontario. As of November, Porter has just one route out of Sky Harbor, to and from Toronto.

When Porter assessed its U.S. routes, it found that while capacity was down year-over-year, the Phoenix-Toronto route was “doing well,” van Teunenbroek said.

“We’re adjusting our flying for where people want to go, and during the winter in Canada, that’s to sun destinations,” she said.

Get the Arizona news you need. Sign up for AZ Briefing from azcentral. 

What does the future look like for Canadian tourism in Arizona?

While a large number of Canadian travelers and snowbirds are choosing not to visit the U.S., some are undeterred.

Garnett Frey, who has wintered in Mesa with his wife for the last 11 years to escape the frigid Alberta winters, said he plans to continue wintering in Arizona in 2026. Frey drives both ways for the trip to Arizona in November and the returns home in April. Between, they fly to Alberta to visit family for the holidays.

He understands why many of his fellow Canadians are choosing to go elsewhere this winter season, but he likes coming to Arizona for the weather and the camaraderie with fellow residents in the RV park community where he stays, which he estimates is populated by 20% Canadian snowbirds.

“We certainly plan on returning south again,” Frey said. “Until health or insurance costs stop us.”

Ultimately, politics will determine if more of Frey’s fellow citizens will join him in the states.

Bags don’t fly free anymore: What Southwest’s new baggage policy means for Arizonans

Politics remain a deciding factor for Canadian tourism in Arizona

The future of Canadian tourism hinges on whether relations between the U.S. and Canadian governments improve enough to restore Canadians’ confidence in the U.S., said Zimbaluk. He hopes both sides will resolve their differences and tourism between Canada and the U.S. continues.

“If people can start to see the governments are working together again,” Zimbaluk said, “I hope the negatives start to go away.”

In the fall, Canada began a marketing campaign offering welcoming messages to American visitors planning to travel to Canada to show they are ready to move on from the politics of the trade war.

But it continues to be an uphill battle.

In October, Trump was incensed by an advertisement produced by Ontario, Canada’s regional government that depicted the late president and conservative icon Ronald Reagan speaking about the consequences of tariffs on foreign goods. The ad selectively edited five complete sentences from a 1987 radio address that Reagan gave after increasing tariffs on Japanese imports, in response to Japan violating a semiconductor trade agreement.

In response to the ad, Trump increased tariffs on Canadian goods by 10% and ended trade negotiations with Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney said he apologized to Trump for the ad.

Evidence suggests that while politics are discouraging Canadians from visiting the U.S., it’s been a boon for at least one other warm weather destination.

While the number of Canadian arrivals to the U.S. by air fell more than 30% from January to July 2025, Mexico’s government stated that Canadian tourist visits to Mexico jumped nearly 12% during that same time.

Michael Salerno is an award-winning journalist who’s covered travel and tourism since 2014. His work as The Arizona Republic’s consumer travel reporter aims to help readers navigate the stresses of traveling and get the best value for their money on their vacations. He can be reached at Michael.Salerno@gannett.com.

Support local journalism. Subscribe to azcentral.com today.