US Dollar – Stuck, but not for long
The US Dollar Index forecast now revolves around one simple truth:
The dollar is trapped. But the trap is tightening — and it can’t hold for much longer.
After surging off the 99.00s, DXY slammed into resistance just below 100.40 and has refused to move meaningfully in either direction. That stall isn’t weakness — it’s compression. And compression is fuel for expansion.
What’s keeping the dollar frozen is not lack of interest — it’s lack of clarity.
The government shutdown delayed key inflation and employment data. Markets are flying partially blind. Traders have been reluctant to commit until fresh numbers arrive.
But that changes this week.
A dense cluster of high-impact US releases is about to hit, giving the market the information it’s been missing — and forcing DXY to choose a side.
The macro pressure cooker – Why DXY can’t stay here
Three major themes are coiling the dollar at 100:
1. The Fed is turning dovish
Several Fed officials have hinted at the possibility of a December rate cut, citing cooling labour momentum and steady disinflation.
Normally, that would drag the dollar lower — but this time growth is still holding up, preventing a selloff.
This tension is exactly why DXY refuses to move.
2. The Shutdown delayed key inflation and jobs data
Markets haven’t seen a full CPI release in weeks.
Some labour prints are missing.
Investors have been forced to rely on partial indicators and nowcasts.
This creates a “fog of uncertainty” — and uncertainty breeds tight ranges.
3. Growth remains surprisingly resilient
GDP and consumer spending have not collapsed.
This keeps the dollar supported even as the Fed softens.
The result: DXY stuck at 100.
The outcome: it won’t stay stuck.
The data wave arrives – These releases will break the range
This week is loaded with heavy US data that will finally give the market the clarity it was waiting for.
Here are the drivers that matter:
1. Retail Sales (September)
Forecast: 0.4%
This measures real consumer demand — the backbone of the US economy.
- Weak – December cut odds spike – USD bearish
- Strong – Spending resilience – USD bullish
2. Producer Price Index (PPI) (September)
Forecast: 0.3%
Upstream inflation that hints where CPI may go next.
- Hot → Delays Fed easing → USD bullish
- Soft → Confirms disinflation → USD bearish
3. Building permits (September and October)
Housing is incredibly rate-sensitive.
- Weakness – Higher rates hurting activity – Case for easing – USD downside
- Strength – Housing demand stable – USD supportive
4. Durable Goods Orders (September and October)
Signals corporate investment and manufacturing momentum.
- Forecasts point to a slowdown
- Weak – Market prices in cuts – USD dips
- Strong – Firms still spending – USD can press higher
5. GDP growth rate (advance)
Forecast: 3.0% (previous 3.8%)
The most important release in the cluster.
- Below 3.0% – Growth cooling – Bearish USD
- Above expectations – Growth advantage intact – Bullish USD, DXY breakout
Technical outlook – The coil before the break
The 4H price action shows:
- Resistance: 100.36.
- Support: 100.00.
- The entire structure is compact, tight, and energy-loaded.
- This type of compression does not last.
DXY has been moving sideways long enough — price is preparing for directional expansion.
Bullish scenario — Break above 100.36
A bullish breakout becomes likely if:
- DXY prints a clean 4H close above 100.36.
- Data comes in hot (strong Retail Sales, firmer PPI, strong GDP).
- Risk sentiment sours (equity weakness, risk-off tone).
Upside targets:
- 100.80–101.00.
- 101.50 if momentum is strong.
Bearish scenario — Break below 100.00
A bearish breakdown unfolds if:
- Data cluster leans soft.
- Markets price in a confident December cut.
- Risk-on flows push capital out of USD.
Downside targets:
- 99.70–99.50.
- 99.00–98.80 if selling accelerates.
