On the Feb. 2, 2026, episode of The Morning Filter podcast, Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss how investors should interpret sentiment around the US dollar today and what indicators to keep an eye on.
Should Investors Worry About the Weakening US Dollar?
Dziubinski: Let’s touch base on what’s been going on with the US dollar. The dollar dropped to its lowest level since 2022 last week. How should investors be thinking about the weakening US dollar?
Sekera: I think it’s worth watching, but based on where it’s trading and how it’s been trading, I’m not yet concerned about it. I think there are more scaremongering clickbait headlines out there proclaiming a lot of doom. But in my mind, the weakening here just really isn’t indicative of foreign investors really losing confidence in the US dollar. And it hasn’t been enough to change our long-term intrinsic valuations on our equity research team. So, from an investor’s point of view, I’d recommend investors go pull up a chart of the DEXI, DXY, that’s the US-dollar index, and look at it in three different perspectives. First, just take a look at a short-term chart of the past year. I’d say we’re coming down from relatively high levels in 2024, but we’ve really been in a trading range since last April. And I think we’re at the bottom of that range right now. Maybe we can go a little bit lower. But again, it’s not like it’s just falling off a cliff. Then look at a five-year chart, much more like a medium-term chart of the DEXI. We’re really at the same level as we were in early 2022 and still well above where we bottomed out in mid-2021.
And then, finally, a long-term chart. I was able to look at the dollar over long periods of time, like from 2003 to 2015. The dollar was a lot lower that entire time period than where we are right now. And we had a much higher dollar back when the tech bubble burst in 2001-02. But really, that was just much more of a flight to safety. The dollar is a lot lower. And really, most of all the 1990s. So, again, based on where it is now, looking at it in that long-term historical perspective, it’s really not that concerning to me. I think what you really need to watch from that investment point of view is if the depreciation were to accelerate, but not just that, I think you also need to look at US government bonds. Look at interest rates. If those interest rates were to surge at the same point in time that you had an acceleration of depreciation, that’s the point I would actually start to worry.
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