The gold price’s recovery alongside rising inflation expectations has SEB watching for a shift away from the US Dollar and towards hard assets.
The gold price in US Dollars climbed back above $4,400 on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s recovery as SEB pointed to renewed interest in protecting wealth against a loss of purchasing power in the Dollar.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD was up 0.70% at $4,424.68, following a 0.97% gain in the previous session.
Analysts at SEB see gold’s strength as part of a wider change in investor behaviour.
“However, it is time to start tracking a broader Dollar debasement narrative. This was a theme in early 2026 and looking at variables such as gold, Bitcoin and implied inflation, they are all rising and would arguably be indicative of a switch to real assets away from the Dollar.”
The bank links this risk to a more interventionist US Treasury, arguing that efforts to restrain borrowing costs through bond buybacks can lift inflation expectations and weaken confidence in the currency.
The US ten-year breakeven inflation rate, a market measure of expected inflation, stood at 2.37% on Wednesday, up from 2.35% late last week.
Higher yields do not tell the whole story
Analysts at SEB nevertheless caution against treating rising US Treasury yields as proof that investors are abandoning US government debt.
“Fiscal sustainability concerns as a driver of rates and USD look overblown.”
Its analysis finds that bond pricing does not yet support that conclusion, even as intervention risks strengthen the argument for holding assets outside the Dollar.
That complements UBS’s preference for buying gold on weakness, which rests partly on demand for diversification despite higher real yields.
At Exchange Rates UK Research we think gold can retain that support even with interest rates elevated, provided concerns about the Dollar’s purchasing power continue to attract buyers.
The immediate test is tomorrow’s US consumer-price report.
A strong reading could lift rate-hike expectations and inflation-adjusted yields, increasing the cost of holding gold and testing whether demand for protection against debasement can outweigh that pressure.
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
