Macro update
Asian equities:
Losses were trimmed after earlier declines, with MSCI Asia-Pacific down 0.7% but still set for a fourth consecutive weekly drop, while Chinese markets outperformed on hopes of policy support.
Geopolitics:
US President Trump extended the deadline for potential strikes on Iran by 10 days, easing immediate concerns, though uncertainty remains elevated amid reports of possible troop deployments.
Oil markets:
Despite rising on the day they are heading for a weekly loss, although prices remain elevated above $100 for Brent crude oil due to ongoing supply disruption.
US markets:
Wall Street futures gained around 0.6% after the Nasdaq 100 slipped into correction territory, down nearly 11% from its recent peak.
Rates and bonds:
Global yields moved higher as oil-driven inflation fears intensified, with markets now assigning roughly a 40–50% probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike by September.
Currencies and gold:
The US dollar stayed near recent highs on safe-haven demand, while gold rebounded 2% but is still on course for a fourth straight weekly decline.
DAX 40 remains under pressure
The DAX 40 is trying to hold above its current March low but continues to slip towards it at 21,864. Support between the 20 to 24 March lows at 22,370 – 22,350 may offer support on the way down, though.
For a bullish reversal to gain traction Thursday’s high at 22,813 will need to be exceeded. In this case Wednesday’s high at 23,079 may be revisited.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 25 March 23,079 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 18 March high at 23,957.
