The Canadian dollar hit its lowest in almost three weeks against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices fell and cooler domestic inflation data raised expectations the Bank of Canada would cut interest rates in the coming months.
The loonie was trading 0.4 per-cent lower at 1.3855 per U.S. dollar, or 72.18 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since August 1 at 1.3860.
Canada’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.7 per cent in July from 1.9 per cent in the prior month, helped by lower gasoline prices, while 3-month annualized measures of underlying inflation that the BoC closely tracks decelerated to 2.4 per cent from 3.4 per cent, according to Reuters calculations.
“I think the more impactful bit of the report is that deceleration in three-month rates of core CPI,” said Robert Both, senior Canada macro strategist at TD Securities. “So even with CPI-trim and median still running near 3 per cent year-over-year, the bank has put a little more weight on those three-month core rates.”
Investors see a 39 per-cent chance of a rate cut from the Canadian central bank at the next policy decision on September 17, up from 31 per cent before the data, and have leaned heavily toward an easing of policy by October.
The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was down 1.1 per cent at US$62.71 a barrel as traders assessed the possibility that talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. to end the war in Ukraine could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude, raising supply.
One possible bright spot for the loonie was the ending of a strike by flight attendants at Air Canada, the nation’s largest carrier, which could have weighed on the domestic economy.
Canadian bond yields moved lower across the curve, with the 10-year down 4.4 basis points at 3.446 per cent.
