They’re expected to hold firm but with a real “hawkish” tone to show the world just how serious they are about that nasty stagflationary threat looming.
RBA’s 4.10% Hike: A Narrow 5–4 Split Amid “Hormuz Panic”
The RBA hiked up interest rates by a quarter of a percent on March 17, 2026 for the second time in a row. It’s clear the central bank is fighting to contain a new wave of inflation triggered by all the chaos of the US-Iran war.
The Split Vote: Five of the RBA members voted for a 25-basis-point hike with four against – a very narrow margin indeed. When asked about it, RBA Governor Bullock explained that the members who voted to hold rates actually wanted to keep interest rates quite high – its just a matter of choosing when the next hike should really happen.
Inflation Alarm: The current inflation rate of 3.8% is looking pretty worrying with some economists predicting it could hit a whopping 5% if national petrol prices keep on climbing from $1.71 to over $2.20 per litre.
Policy Divergence: The RBA’s aggressive stance is creating a clear rift between the Aussie’s financial policy and the US Fed’s, which is still struggling with a US labour market that shed a staggering 92,000 jobs not too long ago.
FOMC Preview: Balancing a “Dual-Mandate Nightmare”
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signs off on its meeting today (March 18, 2026), Chairman Jerome Powell is staring down a very tough “wait-and-see” situation.
