Breaking The Descending Trendline: The recent move above the trendline shifts the market structure from “lower highs” to a potential base formation, with buyers re-taking control around 0.7085.
50 & 200 EMA Support: Bullish candles have cut through the 50-EMA ($0.7060), and the 200-EMA ($0.7000) is now in line with rising support from the February lows, providing a robust structural floor.
Momentum and RSI: The RSI is climbing towards 60, showing improving bullish strength without quite hitting overbought extremes yet. A sustained breakout above the 0.7100 horizontal resistance would open the way to 0.7146 and the multi-year high zone.
Key Market Drivers and Trade Strategy
The Australian Dollar’s trajectory through the March 17 RBA meeting is going to be defined by the following catalysts:
Wednesday US CPI: A lower-than-expected inflation print would likely weaken the DXY even further, giving the green light for an AUD surge towards 0.7200.
RBA “Live” Meeting (March 17): Markets are currently pricing in a 20-22% chance of a 25bps hike; any confirmation of this move would likely catalyse a breakout above current resistance levels.
Commodity Ties: Stabilisation in iron ore prices and China’s recovery hints continue to provide an underlying fundamental floor for the AUD.
Trade Idea: Look for long entries on a sustained 4-hour close above 0.7100 targeting 0.7145 and 0.7200, with a stop-loss placed below the 0.7050 support zone.
