Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is creeping back toward 98.3 on safe-haven demand, which you’d normally expect to drag the Aussie lower. But it’s holding up better than it has any right to, propped up by two things: its role as a commodity-linked currency, and China’s surprisingly solid 5.0% Q1 GDP print. Right now it really is a two-speed market — you have the geopolitical fear trade pulling one way and the China recovery story pulling the other.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Weekly Structure Defies the Noise
Step back from the daily drama and the picture is actually quite orderly. On the weekly chart, AUD/USD has absorbed a serious stress test and come out the other side intact. Price is holding comfortably above the long-term Supertrend floor at 0.6726, and the broader structure of higher highs and higher lows is still very much in place. We’ve broken cleanly out of the range that capped the pair through most of 2024, and the bulls are defending their territory. This isn’t a trend that’s breaking down. It’s a trend that ran hard and is now catching its breath.
