The informal currency market in Cuba witnessed a stable U.S. dollar and a further decline of the euro, leaving those who closely monitor the island’s exchange rates perplexed amid contradictory signals and a general mistrust of the Cuban peso.
According to the representative rates published by the independent outlet elTOQUE, the U.S. dollar (USD) remains stable at 410 Cuban pesos (CUP) this Saturday, the same as the previous day.
Conversely, the euro (EUR) has dropped another 10 pesos, now standing at 450 CUP, while the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains unchanged at 205 CUP.
Exchange Rates and Market Trends in Cuba
On Saturday, November 8, 2025, the exchange rates are as follows:
- USD to CUP: 410 CUP
- EUR to CUP: 450 CUP
- MLC to CUP: 205 CUP
The gap between the dollar and the euro has narrowed to just 40 pesos. Some view this as a technical correction, while others see it as a temporary distortion in the informal market. What remains clear is that the currency behavior continues to reflect an economy lacking clear direction, marked by instability.
Factors Influencing Currency Movements
Economists consulted suggest that the recent decline in foreign currencies could be linked to a temporary reduction in demand or the psychological impact of official propaganda campaigns. However, they caution that there are no structural reasons supporting a sustained recovery of the Cuban peso.
Inflation, a fiscal deficit, and lack of trust in the regime’s financial institutions remain the primary drivers of devaluation.
In early November, the regime ramped up its rhetoric against the informal market, labeling it as an “instrument of economic destabilization.” Yet, experts remind us that this market emerged precisely due to the State’s inability to provide foreign currency through formal channels and the discrediting of the official exchange rate.
The Unpredictable Future of Cuba’s Currency Market
Over the past three years, experience has shown that while the dollar and euro may experience temporary drops, the market ultimately readjusts upward. Since 2022, the phenomenon known as “exchange rate overreaction”—speculative peaks followed by partial declines—has been consistent without the Cuban peso regaining value sustainably.
Meanwhile, the promised “floating rate” system announced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero at the end of 2024 has yet to be implemented. Although the Cuban peso remains without credibility, the recent behavior of foreign currencies indicates that the informal market continues to send mixed signals, a reflection of the structural instability facing the national economy.
Understanding Cuba’s Currency Market
Why is the Cuban peso struggling to recover?
The Cuban peso struggles due to inflation, a fiscal deficit, and lack of trust in governmental financial institutions.
What caused the recent drop in the euro’s value in Cuba?
The euro’s drop could be due to a temporary decline in demand or the psychological effect of official propaganda, without structural changes backing a peso recovery.
How does the informal market affect Cuba’s economy?
The informal market emerged from the State’s failure to supply currency through formal channels and the discredit of the official rate, influencing economic stability and currency behavior.
