Chinese Yuan Forecast: Dollar Holds Near 6.67 as Goldman Cuts Its 12-Month Call to 6.30
Goldman Sachs expects Chinese exporters to keep buying yuan with their dollar earnings, even as Beijing takes steps to slow the currency’s rise.
The US dollar ended Friday at 6.6717 Chinese yuan, barely changed over a week in which Beijing reported another month of double-digit export growth.
Goldman Sachs now expects a dollar to buy 6.30 yuan in twelve months, down from the 6.40 it projected in October and about 5.6% below Friday’s rate.
The bank puts the onshore exchange rate at 6.60 in three months and 6.50 in six.
Its case depends partly on whether Chinese companies keep their overseas customers’ dollars or sell them for yuan.
Goldman’s economists see support for the yuan from “a growing goods trade surplus, continued exporter conversion of FX receipts, and policymakers’ push for RMB internationalization”.
“We forecast China’s goods trade surplus to rise to US$1.3tn in 2026 and US$1.5tn in 2027. However, policymakers are likely to manage the pace of appreciation.”
The bank estimates that foreign currency inflows related to goods trade amounted to 66% of China’s goods surplus in September alone.
A Chinese manufacturer that keeps a dollar payment on deposit adds to export earnings recorded by customs without creating any immediate demand for yuan.
Chinese companies investing abroad also need foreign currency, and Goldman expects those outflows to continue.
“While China’s current account surplus was strong in 2026, its financial account balance remained weak. The balance of payments (BOP) data suggests that China’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to outpace the inward FDI over the past few quarters.”
Why Goldman sees the surplus growing as exports slow
China’s latest customs figures showed that the value of imports had actually risen faster than exports over the first ten months of 2026, up 23.6% against 17.6% in yuan terms.
The boom in artificial intelligence has pushed up chip prices on both sides of the trade account, making the country’s import bill particularly sensitive to a change in semiconductor prices.
Goldman’s economists traced much of the increase in export prices over the first nine months to chip-related products, but factories in other industries also sold more abroad.
“Export volumes nevertheless grew a robust 9.5% yoy, supported by the “new three” sectors-electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels-as well as broader strength in electrical equipment.”
For 2027, the bank sees a much smaller rise in the import bill as chip and energy prices settle.
“Volume growth should slow further to 1.6% in 2027 as subdued domestic demand and China’s push for self-sufficiency constrain imports. Lower energy prices could encourage fuel restocking but are unlikely to offset the broader demand weakness. As chip and energy prices normalize, we expect import price inflation to ease from 18.9% in 2026 to 4.5% in 2027.”
Goldman expects export volumes to grow 6% in 2027, leaving shipments overseas growing considerably faster than the volume of goods coming in.
Beijing puts a brake on yuan buying
The People’s Bank of China has given commercial banks an immediate reason to hold on to more of their foreign currency.
From Sunday 15 November, banks must keep 6% of their foreign currency deposits in reserve, up from 4%.
The change takes some dollars out of circulation, making it harder for the yuan to appreciate quickly.
Goldman sees a limit to how fast Beijing wants the yuan to strengthen.
“This is consistent with our view that Beijing favors gradual CNY appreciation of around 3-5% per year against the USD.”
The bank’s own interest-rate forecasts put the Chinese overnight policy rate at 1.25% this December and 1.15% by the end of 2027, offering investors less reason to hold yuan for the interest they can earn.
Trade risks extend beyond Washington
US restrictions on advanced chips and Chinese controls on rare earths will be in focus when leaders gather in Shenzhen for the 18-19 November APEC meeting.
CitiFX’s Varshi Karamsetty expects limited progress at the summit, with US companies still reporting difficulty obtaining rare earths despite the earlier truce.
For Goldman’s year-ahead forecast, Europe is another sizeable customer whose orders could change.
“A tougher EU trade stance is a key risk to the export outlook, as the EU accounts for 14% of China’s nominal exports and has contributed about 2pp to export volume growth in January-September. Still, our baseline assumes that mutual economic interests will limit escalation and keep downside risk contained.”
Even if the EU buys fewer Chinese-made hybrid cars, Goldman sees room for Chinese battery suppliers to retain some of that business if car assembly moves to Europe.
