Dollar steadied by focus on Fed path, China, Middle East

Yen stronger on safe-haven flows
Focus on US inflation, Fed minutes
China stock rally fizzles, yuan eases

NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) – The dollar held firm on Tuesday, treading water just under last week’s seven-week highs as investors assessed the outlook for further U.S. rate cuts, with concerns about the conflict in the Middle East and China’s struggling economy lending support.

The U.S. data calendar is relatively light this week. Investors will seek trading signals from Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where officials almost unanimously agreed to cut rates by 50 basis points, as well as Thursday’s September Consumer Price Index report.

“Just given the market was probably caught too short the dollar on Friday, I think there is going to be caution and patience ahead of CPI on Thursday,” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.

The euro slipped 0.03% to $1.0971, still near the seven-week low of $1.09515 hit Friday. The pound edged 0.02% higher to $1.3085, after hitting a three-week low of $1.30595 on Monday.

Traders have shifted their expectations of monetary easing from the Fed this year. A strong jobs report last week gave credence to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that the central bank would stick to its usual quarter-percentage-point rate reductions after it began its easing cycle with September’s big cut.

New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent vote of the rate-setting Committee, echoed Powell’s comments, telling the Financial Times in an interview that ran on Tuesday he did not consider the September move “as the rule of how we act in the future”.

Markets are ascribing an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction in November, the CME FedWatch tool showed, and some now bet on no cut at all. Just 50 bps of easing is priced in by December, down from more than 70 bps a week earlier.

That has helped the buck surge against major rival currencies like the euro, sterling and the yen. The yen had also seen some safe-haven buying because of rising geopolitical worries but gave a bit later so that dollar/yen ended 0.06% firmer at 148.27. It touched a seven-week high of 149.10 on Monday on concerns that the Bank of Japan would be raising rates in the near term.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli airstrikes had killed two successors to Hezbollah’s slain leader, as Israel expanded its offensive against the Iran-backed group. The comments were released hours after the deputy leader of Hezbollah left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against major rivals, rose 0.06% to 102.54.

“If soft enough, Thursday’s CPI update could eventually help (in) calming the Fed doves’ nerves and prevent the U.S. dollar from stepping into the medium-term bullish consolidation zone against many majors,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

“If not, the no-November-cut pricing could take off, and that would mean higher yields, a stronger U.S. dollar across the board, weaker other currencies, and some negative pressure on equity valuations.”

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained above 4%, having touched the level on Monday for the first time in two months as traders curtailed wagers on big rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan dropped to 7.0648 per dollar, while China’s stock markets returned with a strong open after a week-long holiday break, but finished well off their highs as a lack of detail dented optimism around stimulus measures.

“I guess the markets were expecting more details. So that probably was much of the focus initially,” said Serebriakov. “Not that there has been big moves on the back of that. I think the Aussie probably was the highlight today, just underperforming across the board.

The dollar rose to its highest price since Aug. 19 against the Canadian dollar and was last up 0.3% at C$1.3657. The Australian dollar slid 0.27% to US$0.6739, delving its lowest since Sept. 16.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.42% to $62,106.00. Ethereum was flat to $2,441.30.

Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore and Medha Singh in London; Editing by Jamie Freed, Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Barbara Lewis and David Gregorio

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