Dollar Index: Fed Minutes Keep Year-End Tightening in Play
The dollar remains buoyed after minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed the majority of Fed officials believe another increase would likely be appropriate before year’s end. The Fed raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% – 4.00%. Officials were divided as to whether the increase was more warranted by energy and supply-driven inflation risks or by excess demand in the economy. For the time being, markets price in an 81.7% chance of no change at the October meeting, signaling December as the more likely tightening window.
Yields on treasuries also remain a support for the dollar. The 10-year U.S. treasury yield approached 5.30% on Thursday, due to sustained elevated levels of inflation, increased government borrowing, and tightening financial conditions around the globe.
EUR: French Fiscal Stress Overshadows the Inflation Story
The euro has come under pressure as attention on France’s public finance concerns has increased. The French government has said it wants to lower its budget deficit to 5% of GDP from 5.4%. However, political resistance is expected up until the 2027 presidential elections. Political instability and sluggish growth in France may keep the French budget deficit elevated in the years ahead. Concerns on the French Treasury’s bond issuance program have increased after the French Treasury said it would issue a record €340bn of bonds in 2027.
Meanwhile, euro-area inflation moved further above the ECB’s target. In September inflation was at 3.4% in France, 4.1% in Italy, 3.3% in Germany, and 5.0% in Spain. Core inflation remained at 2.4% in the euro area in September.
GBP: BoE Tightening Expectations Clash With Fiscal Pressure
Yields on UK’s 30-year gilt continue to spike. 30-year gilt yields broke through 6% to post a 28-year high of 6.036% on October 7. Pressure on public finances has further increased ahead of the government’s budget on 28 October.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds Above 102.00 as 102.49 Remains the Key Breakout Test
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
The dollar index is trading at 102.28 on the 1 hour chart and I see that the price is holding above the rising trendline and both the moving averages, despite some pauses below the recent highs. The shorter-term structure of higher-lows is in tact, and as long as this holds, the price action is biasing towards the upside.
Resistance is at 102.49. A break above that would open 102.70 and 102.95. The lower support zone is at 102.00-101.76, and if this is broken, 101.49 and 101.16 would be more likely.
The RSI is currently in the middle, which is a relief from the overbought condition. I would be biased to the upside as long as the dollar index is above the 101.76 level and the rising trendline. A breakdown of 101.49 would increase the likelihood of a move toward the 100.40 level. Conversely, a move above 102.49 would increase the odds of a move toward 102.70 and 102.95.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Slips Below 1.3222 as 1.3180 Support Returns to Focus
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD is currently at 1.3207, after hitting resistance at 1.3284. Price also failed to break the descending trendline. Overall, this pushed price back to the downside, and 1.3222 has also lost support, along with the moving averages, which continue to trend higher.
1.3180 is support. A break below this level would bring 1.3147 into play, followed by 1.3113. On the upside, 1.3222 would act as first resistance, with 1.3284 and 1.3324 providing further resistance levels.
RSI is in the lower range, indicating a slight tilt toward the sell-side. Price remains below 1.3222 and 1.3284, as well as the descending trendline. Therefore, I am looking for opportunities to sell. 1.3284 would bring about a shift in attitude toward the trendline and the bull-side. On the other hand, a break below 1.3180 would give way to 1.3147.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Holds Near 1.1200 as 1.1161 Support Comes Into Focus
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1198 on the 2-hour chart, and what is capturing my attention is price is trading firmly below both the moving averages, and the descending trend line. The recent bounce was unable to take out 1.1212, keeping the larger bearish structure in place and keeping control with sellers.
The first area of support I am looking at is 1.1161. If price were to break 1.1161, 1.1115 would be the next area of support, followed by 1.1063. The first area of resistance is located at 1.1212, followed by 1.1272 and then 1.1334 if buyers are able to initiate a larger move to the upside.
RSI is still below the midline, indicating that the larger time frame trend remains bearish. I would agree with the bearish bias as long as 1.1212 and the descending trend line continue to provide resistance. A break above 1.1272 would be bullish, and a break below 1.1161 would confirm 1.1115 as the next area of support.
