Macro update
Jobs data: Investors await Friday’s US payrolls, expected to show modest growth and 4.3% unemployment – crucial for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut decisions.
Shutdown risk: A potential US government shutdown could delay key data, forcing the Fed to rely on private surveys ahead of its October meeting.
Fed outlook: Markets see a 90% chance of an October rate cut and two-thirds odds of another in December, though stronger jobs numbers may slow easing.
Valuations: The S&P 500 trades at 22.8x forward earnings – near a 5-year high – leaving equities exposed to negative surprises despite record highs.
Asia session: Most Asian markets gained, led by China and South Korea; Japan’s Nikkei slipped after September strength.
Commodities & FX: Gold set a record above $3,800.00, oil eased on supply gains, the US dollar weakened, and Treasuries rallied amid shutdown worries.
FTSE 100 rally is ongoing
Last week’s sharp rise in the FTSE 100 has taken it close to its 12 September peak at 9,340 which remains in sight, together with the August all-time high at 9,358.
Potential slips may find support around the 15 September high at 9,298.
