GBPNZD reached new highs in the week ending 17 October as trade tension remained generally high and traders digested the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovishness, which is likely to continue. The British job report was overall weak but the monthly GDP matched expectations with 0.1% growth. The current situation of a differential in rates of 1.5% in favour of the pound is historically extremely unusual: this is unlikely to shrink and, on the contrary, might increase by the end of the year, so fundamentals will probably continue to favour the pound for some time.
Technically, though, GBPNZD seems to be on shakier ground with strong buying saturation based on both the slow stochastic and Bollinger Bands. However, there hasn’t been a clear extension far above the moving averages. ATR has risen significantly over the last week, which might suggest continuation. Resistance in the short term isn’t clear, but if the uptrend continues, August 2015’s $2.41 could be a strong area of resistance.
The 20 SMA a bit above $2.32 looks like an obvious dynamic support and $2.23 is a possible long-term static support in the medium term having been tested twice in 2025 so far. Key upcoming releases for GBPNZD include New Zealand’s balance of trade on Monday, 20 October, and most importantly, British inflation on Wednesday, 22 October.
This article was submitted by Michael Stark, financial content leader at Exness.
For the latest analysis, opinions and more, follow me on X: @MStarkExness.
The opinions here are personal to the writer: they do not represent the opinions of Exness or FX Empire. This is not a recommendation to trade.
