The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate saw choppy trade last week as geopolitical developments and central bank decisions drove volatility.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading around CA$1.8464, fluctuating between highs near CA$1.8508 and lows around CA$1.8407.
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.84408 (+0.06%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.59209 (-0.03%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.36185 (-0.02%)
WEEKLY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) struggled for direction at the start of last week after weak UK retail sentiment weighed on confidence.
The Confederation of British Industry’s distributive trades survey fell to a record low in April, highlighting ongoing pressure in the sector.
Sterling remained under pressure through midweek as UK borrowing costs climbed, driven by political uncertainty and concerns linked to global tensions.
By Thursday, the Pound saw more mixed movement following the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision.
While policymakers signalled that further tightening may still be needed, they also tempered expectations for multiple rate hikes, limiting Sterling’s upside.
A lack of fresh UK data at the end of the week left the Pound without clear direction.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) experienced significant volatility as oil price swings dominated sentiment.
Oil markets reacted sharply to developments in the Middle East, with shifting expectations around supply disruptions driving large price moves.
Additional volatility came after the United Arab Emirates exited the OPEC cartel, while oil prices briefly surged to multi-year highs before retreating.
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest rate decision and Canada’s latest GDP figures also contributed to fluctuations in CAD.
GBP/CAD Forecast: PMI Data and Oil Prices in Focus
Looking ahead, Canada’s services PMI is expected to remain in contraction territory, which could weigh on the ‘Loonie’ if confirmed.
The Ivey PMI will also be closely watched, alongside the latest labour market data, which could provide support to CAD if employment conditions strengthen.
For Sterling, the final UK services PMI will be the key domestic release.
Confirmation of stronger activity may lend some support to the Pound, although broader market dynamics are likely to remain the dominant driver.
Oil price volatility is expected to continue influencing GBP/CAD, with further swings likely to result in unpredictable movement.
