The Data Leading Into Today’s Release
June’s non-farm payrolls print came in at just 57,000, well below the 110,000 consensus forecast, alongside a combined 74,000 downward revision to the April and May figures (FinanceCalendar, citing BLS Employment Situation Summary, 2 July 2026).
Ahead of today’s July release, several leading indicators pointed to continued softness. The ADP National Employment Report showed the US private sector added only 44,000 jobs in July, below the 75,000 forecast, while the ISM Services Employment Index fell from 51.2 to 47.4, moving into contraction territory (TradingKey, 7 August 2026).
Not every signal was weak. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 1 August came in at 199,000, slightly better than the 202,000 estimate, and Challenger Job Cuts fell 27% to 33,429 in July, the lowest reading in two years (FXStreet, 6 August 2026).
