Pound Sterling opens the new week with a firmer tone against the Dollar and Yen, but the broader charts suggest GBP strength is still selective rather than broad-based.
The main global driver is still the US Dollar’s post-payrolls reset.
Friday’s weak US labour-market release cooled expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate increase, with traders now waiting for Wednesday’s US CPI figures to decide whether the Dollar’s latest setback has further to run.
Oil prices are also calmer than they were during the peak of the Strait of Hormuz shock, with Brent near $83.50 as Iran and Oman move closer to an agreement on shipping lanes, although full access to the waterway remains tied to wider US-Iran conditions.
That combination has helped risk appetite, but it has not created a simple “sell Dollar, buy everything else” market.
The dashboard shows GBP/USD and GBP/CHF with the strongest one-month momentum among the major selected crosses, while GBP/NZD, GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD remain under pressure over the same period.
The 14-day RSI readings also show the market is not chasing the same trade everywhere, with GBP/JPY still near oversold territory while GBP/USD is closer to the upper half of its short-term range.
The year-to-date chart keeps GBP/CAD and GBP/EUR at the top of the major Sterling crosses, while GBP/AUD remains the clear laggard.
That split matters because it tells us the Pound is still being rewarded against currencies with weaker domestic or commodity stories, but not against currencies backed by stronger local data or better risk appetite.
The weekly chart shows GBP/USD recovering cleanly from late-July lows, while GBP/JPY is still trying to repair the damage caused by the late-July intervention shock.
GBP/CAD has slipped from its recent highs, and GBP/AUD remains unable to generate much upside momentum.
The wider G8 strength chart still has the New Zealand Dollar and Japanese Yen ahead over one month.
The Pound sits below the Euro, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar, but above the US Dollar and Swiss Franc.
The month-to-date performance chart shows the strongest Pound Sterling gains against the Yen, Krone and Franc.
The weakest crosses are GBP/ZAR, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD, which underlines how much of the latest move is being driven by quote-currency stories rather than a single Pound trend.
The latest Exchange Rates UK Research snapshot shows the British Pound’s strongest one-day gains against the Japanese Yen, South African Rand, Indian Rupee and Singapore Dollar.
US Dollar (GBP/USD) – 1.350249 (+0.07%)
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate is trading around 1.35 as the Dollar steadies near a two-month low.
The weaker US payrolls report has cut the market-implied chance of a September Fed hike to around 44% from 67% a week earlier, leaving the Dollar vulnerable if Wednesday’s CPI confirms that inflation pressure is fading.
The immediate Dollar calendar is clear, with US CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and retail sales plus Michigan sentiment on Friday.
A hot inflation print would quickly revive Dollar demand, while softer data would leave GBP/USD targeting the recent 1.3550 area.
Euro (GBP/EUR) – 1.167729 (+0.03%)
The Euro is steady as markets wait for a busier second half of the week.
The Eurozone calendar is centred on industrial production on Thursday, followed by second-estimate Q2 GDP, employment and trade balance data on Friday.
That gives EUR traders a growth test after recent manufacturing figures improved but failed to remove doubts over underlying demand.
GBP/EUR remains close to 1.1680, with 1.17 still acting as the level bulls need to reclaim before the cross can rebuild upward momentum.
Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) – 214.080616 (+0.55%)
The Yen is weaker at the start of the week, but the underlying policy story is still more supportive than it was before the intervention episode.
The Bank of Japan’s July summary showed several policymakers pushing for a faster response to inflation risks, strengthening the case for a possible September rate hike.
The Yen’s problem today is that traders are taking some profit after the sharp intervention-led rally, while global equities are firmer and US yields have stabilised.
Japanese PPI, current-account, bank-lending, Reuters Tankan and machine-tool order releases are still due this week, leaving the Yen sensitive to any fresh inflation or corporate-demand signal.
Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) – 1.909510 (+0.02%)
The Australian Dollar is steady ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision.
The RBA is expected to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, and markets will focus on whether policymakers retain a hawkish bias after recent evidence of resilient household spending and still-sticky inflation risks.
Australian business confidence and home-lending data are also on the calendar this week.
GBP/AUD remains weak on the broader charts, so a firmly hawkish RBA tone would keep pressure on the cross even if Sterling remains firm elsewhere.
Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) – 1.882146 (+0.07%)
The Canadian Dollar is caught between stable oil prices and a domestic calendar that only becomes more important later in the week.
Brent near $83.50 is high enough to keep CAD from weakening sharply, but it is no longer delivering the same positive shock that supported oil-linked currencies earlier in the summer.
Canada’s main domestic releases are building permits on Wednesday, followed by manufacturing shipments and wholesale trade on Friday.
GBP/CAD has lost momentum since early August, and the 1.88 area is now the short-term pivot.
Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) – 1.091007 (+0.07%)
The Swiss Franc remains one of the weaker G8 currencies on the one-month strength chart.
The move is not a classic risk-off environment, with global equities firmer and oil no longer surging, so defensive CHF demand has been limited.
Swiss Q2 GDP is due this week and will test whether the stronger Franc and softer European demand are starting to bite more clearly.
GBP/CHF remains close to recent highs, although the cross may struggle if US CPI revives safe-haven flows or pushes yields lower again.
New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) – 2.290337 (+0.04%)
The New Zealand Dollar remains the strongest currency on the one-month G8 strength chart.
NZD is being supported by earlier gains, firmer global equity sentiment and a still-cautious market view on the Dollar after the weak US jobs report.
There is no major New Zealand tier-one release dominating this week’s calendar, so the Kiwi is likely to take its lead from US CPI, China credit figures and general risk appetite.
GBP/NZD is therefore more exposed to global positioning than domestic New Zealand news over the next few sessions.
Chinese Yuan (GBP/CNY) – 9.108646 (+0.06%)
The Yuan is steady after China’s July inflation numbers cooled more than expected.
Producer price inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.1%, while consumer inflation also eased, reinforcing the view that domestic demand remains uneven even as price pressure from the energy shock fades.
The next China focus is monetary data, with new yuan loans expected to fall sharply from June’s front-loaded lending surge.
That keeps the Yuan supported by a softer Dollar, but not strong enough to force GBP/CNY materially lower.
Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK) – 12.800657 (+0.09%)
The Swedish Krona is little changed as traders keep treating SEK as a higher-beta European growth currency.
This week’s European data mix will matter more than local Swedish news, with German final inflation, Eurozone industrial production and Friday’s GDP/employment numbers likely to shape the broader regional tone.
The Krona needs a stronger European growth signal to extend gains, while any hot US CPI print would usually hurt SEK through higher global yields and weaker risk appetite.
GBP/SEK remains stuck near 12.80, with no clean breakout signal yet.
Norwegian Krone (GBP/NOK) – 12.837076 (+0.08%)
The Norwegian Krone is still trading as an oil-and-rates currency.
Oil stability near $83.50 is helpful, but the Krone needs a clearer crude rebound to recover its recent momentum.
Thursday’s Norges Bank decision is the key domestic event, with markets watching whether policymakers sound comfortable with inflation risks and the currency backdrop.
GBP/NOK remains lower year-to-date, but the short-term chart suggests the Krone has stopped making easy gains.
Singapore Dollar (GBP/SGD) – 1.727101 (+0.16%)
The Singapore Dollar is softer as Asian FX trades cautiously despite firmer regional equities.
Singapore GDP is due this week, alongside other regional growth releases from Malaysia, Taiwan and Hong Kong.
For SGD, the bigger driver is still the regional mix of China data, US CPI and oil prices rather than a local monetary-policy story.
GBP/SGD is pressing back toward recent highs, but a strong Singapore GDP print would make that move harder to extend.
Mexican Peso (GBP/MXN) – 23.141161 (+0.08%)
The Mexican Peso is softer after last week’s inflation and Banxico decisions helped shift attention back toward rate-cut risk.
Mexico’s annual inflation slowed to 3.12% in July, the lowest since May 2020, while the central bank held rates steady and signalled price pressures could continue easing.
Industrial production data are due this week, and the Peso will also react to US CPI because higher Treasury yields would challenge the carry trade.
GBP/MXN remains near recent highs, but Peso losses are still limited while global risk appetite holds.
South African Rand (GBP/ZAR) – 21.832443 (+0.27%)
The Rand is the weakest major currency against the Pound this morning.
Lower oil has helped South Africa at points over recent sessions, but today’s move suggests emerging-market positioning is more cautious before US CPI and this week’s global inflation data.
South Africa’s domestic calendar includes mining and production indicators, but the bigger driver for ZAR remains the global Dollar, oil and risk mix.
GBP/ZAR is still down month-to-date, so today’s rebound looks more like position adjustment than a full reversal.
Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) – 128.657046 (+0.23%)
The Rupee remains heavily managed, with traders still watching the RBI’s hand around key Dollar/Rupee levels.
Local focus now turns to India’s inflation data this week, with CPI expected to accelerate and wholesale inflation also due later in the week.
Oil remains important because India is a major energy importer, and renewed Hormuz uncertainty would quickly revive importer dollar demand.
GBP/INR is firmer today, but INR downside should remain contained if the RBI continues to lean against excessive volatility.
Key Events This Week: August 10-14, 2026
- Monday: Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, with the release strengthening expectations for a possible September rate hike.
- Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision, with markets expecting the cash rate to remain at 4.35%.
- Wednesday: US CPI, German final inflation, IEA Oil Market Report and OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
- Thursday: UK Q2 GDP, UK industrial production, UK trade balance, US PPI, Eurozone industrial production, Norges Bank policy decision and Swiss Q2 GDP.
- Friday: US retail sales, US University of Michigan sentiment, Eurozone Q2 GDP second estimate, Eurozone employment, Eurozone trade balance, Canadian manufacturing shipments and Canadian wholesale trade.
- China monetary aggregates are due this week, with markets watching whether credit growth slows sharply after June’s front-loaded lending.
- India CPI and wholesale inflation are due this week, keeping GBP/INR sensitive to RBI expectations and oil prices.
- Singapore GDP is due this week and will matter for regional Asian FX sentiment.
