Pound Sterling regained $1.34 on Monday as demand for the Dollar eased, even though a fresh UK recruitment survey showed that hiring had weakened.
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.341725 (+0.49%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.119287 (+0.47%)
The KPMG and REC survey showed permanent placements falling for the first time in four months, with its hiring index dropping to 46.6 in October from 50.9 in September.
Starting salaries nevertheless rose more quickly, leaving the Bank of England with evidence of weaker recruitment but continuing wage pressure.
Last Thursday’s increase in Bank Rate to 4% remains an important source of support for the Pound, although Monday’s larger move against the Dollar reflects a recovery in market confidence rather than a new UK interest-rate surprise.
Concerns about AI-related shares eased after last week’s sell-off, while Brent fell towards $95 a barrel as fears of renewed US strikes on Iran receded.
GBP/USD recovered much of Friday’s decline, but the New Zealand Dollar rose more strongly and pulled GBP/NZD below 2.40.
Andrew Bailey’s speech this evening and Thursday’s UK GDP figures will give investors fresh evidence on whether the Pound can extend its gains beyond a recovery against the Dollar.
The breadth chart records nine of 13 Pound crosses higher over the past 30 days, three lower and one little changed.
The Australian Dollar has lost the most ground, while the Rupee, Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone have outperformed the Pound.
GBP/AUD has risen 2.65% over that period, ahead of GBP/EUR at 1.49% and GBP/USD at 1.38%.
GBP/CHF is almost unchanged, a useful reminder that the Pound’s recent strength has not extended equally to every currency.
US Dollar (GBP/USD) – 1.341828 (+0.49%)
The Dollar is giving back part of Friday’s strong advance as investors reduce defensive positions ahead of Tuesday’s inflation report.
That is not the same as abandoning expectations of another Fed increase: futures still imply roughly an 80% chance of a December hike after the stronger US jobs figures.
October CPI is due at 13:30 GMT tomorrow.
A stronger reading would challenge today’s recovery in GBP/USD, while a softer result would leave more room to regain last week’s 1.3502 high.
The dashboard puts GBP/USD’s 14-day RSI at 54.4, while GBP/EUR is more stretched at 74.2.
GBP/CAD is at the top of the dashboard’s 30-day range, but GBP/NZD has retreated despite remaining higher over one month.
These are measures of price momentum, not evidence of how large investors’ positions are.
Euro (GBP/EUR) – 1.199149 (+0.05%)
The Euro is recovering against the Dollar but making little progress against the Pound as last week’s BoE increase continues to support UK rates.
EUR/USD is back around 1.1190 as Dollar demand fades.
German exports rose 2.0% in September, beating expectations for a 0.5% increase and offering some reassurance on European demand.
Lower energy prices also offer relief for an importing region.
Friday’s second estimate of euro area GDP is the next major regional growth test, while GBP/EUR remains just below 1.20 and its recent 1.2016 high.
Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) – 211.96595 (+0.16%)
The Yen has recovered against the Dollar without matching the Pound’s advance.
Friday’s warning from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about upside inflation risks remains relevant, but improving equity sentiment is reducing the urgency to seek defensive currencies.
Japan’s current-account and trade figures are due overnight, followed by the larger global test from US inflation.
GBP/JPY is still below its 30-day high of 213.7654, so today’s rise has not yet recovered all of last week’s lost ground.
Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) – 1.945025 (+0.03%)
The Australian Dollar has recovered against the US currency as equity markets stabilise, but remains close to unchanged against the Pound.
Last week’s RBA increase to 4.85% has not prevented AUD from losing ground over the month.
The central bank’s latest projections anticipate slower growth as tighter policy takes effect, leaving investors to weigh inflation protection against weaker demand.
Tomorrow’s US CPI is the immediate external risk, with GBP/AUD still close to its recent 1.9525 high.
The one-month chart shows a sustained rise in GBP/AUD and a steadier advance in GBP/EUR.
GBP/USD’s recovery follows a sharper late-week setback, while GBP/NZD has surrendered a sizeable part of its recent rise.
Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) – 1.891737 (+0.28%)
The Canadian Dollar is struggling with weaker employment and falling oil prices rather than benefiting fully from the improved market mood.
Friday’s figures showed a third successive monthly decline in jobs, with unemployment rising to 6.7%.
That reduced expectations of another Bank of Canada increase, while cheaper crude is now weakening support from export earnings.
The bank publishes its policy deliberations tomorrow at 18:30 GMT.
GBP/CAD has risen above 1.89, with the release offering a test of how much further Canadian rate expectations can soften.
Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) – 1.09875 (+0.28%)
The Franc is retreating as improving equity sentiment and lower oil prices reduce demand for defensive holdings.
Its one-month performance remains strong, however, with the currency-strength index placing CHF only just behind the Pound.
Today’s decline therefore looks different from the sustained weakness in the Australian Dollar.
A renewed stock-market sell-off would threaten the recovery in GBP/CHF, particularly if investors respond to tomorrow’s US inflation figures by reducing risk rather than simply buying Dollars.
New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) – 2.390158 (-0.73%)
The Kiwi is rebounding from Friday’s seven-month low against the Dollar as risk appetite improves after the weekend election.
The preliminary result leaves the governing parties with a narrow majority, but outstanding votes mean the outcome is not settled.
Final results are due on 27 November.
That uncertainty makes it premature to describe today’s rise as an endorsement of a confirmed government.
GBP/NZD has fallen below 2.40, although it remains higher for November and well above its 30-day low.
The Pound leads the one-month index at 101.20, narrowly ahead of the Franc at 101.17.
The Canadian Dollar remains above its starting level at 100.88, while the Australian Dollar trails at 98.19.
The Kiwi’s sharp daily recovery has narrowed its monthly loss rather than eliminated it.
Chinese Yuan (GBP/CNY) – 8.95407 (+0.46%)
China’s inflation figures show rising costs without a comparable improvement in household demand.
Producer prices rose 5.7% annually in October, while consumer inflation slowed to 0.7%.
Higher Dollar deposit rates at several Chinese banks also give exporters more reason to retain foreign-currency earnings rather than convert them into Yuan.
That could restrain CNY appreciation, although the rate increases have not been confirmed as a policy instruction.
US inflation is the next external test for a currency still trading close to its recent highs against the Dollar.
Swedish Krona (GBP/SEK) – 13.1830 (-0.2%)
The Krona has gained modestly against the Pound as European market sentiment improves.
Stronger German exports offer a more encouraging signal for regional demand, although one month’s trade figures do not establish a sustained recovery.
Friday’s euro area GDP update will provide a broader check.
GBP/SEK is down 0.35% over 30 days, making SEK one of the few currencies to outperform the Pound during that period.
A renewed deterioration in equities would make those gains harder to extend.
Norwegian Krone (GBP/NOK) – 12.6294 (-0.1%)
The Krone’s small gain against the Pound has come despite falling oil prices, so crude does not explain today’s direction.
Tomorrow’s Norwegian inflation figures are the more immediate domestic test.
A softer underlying reading would weaken the case for restrictive Norges Bank policy, while persistent price pressure could help NOK withstand lower energy prices.
The longer view remains more favourable to the Krone, with GBP/NOK down about 6.9% this year despite recovering in early November.
Singapore Dollar (GBP/SGD) – 1.7174 (+0.3%)
The Singapore Dollar has not kept pace with the Pound’s recovery, even as the broader Dollar sell-off offers relief to Asian currencies.
China’s combination of strong factory-price inflation and weak consumer demand is an uneven signal for regional trade.
Lower oil prices would ease imported cost pressures, but would not by themselves establish stronger demand for Singapore’s exports.
Tomorrow’s US inflation release is the next broad currency test, particularly if it strengthens expectations of another Fed increase.
Mexican Peso (GBP/MXN) – 24.9543 (+0.3%)
The Peso is weaker against the Pound after last week’s unexpected Banxico rate cut reduced its interest-rate advantage.
The central bank lowered its benchmark to 6.25%, while markets still expect the Fed to raise rates in December.
That policy contrast leaves MXN vulnerable if US inflation exceeds expectations tomorrow.
Improving global risk appetite can provide some relief, but a weaker Dollar does not guarantee that the Peso will outperform currencies backed by rising domestic rates.
South African Rand (GBP/ZAR) – 22.0618 (little changed)
The Rand is holding its ground against the Pound as lower oil prices ease concern about imported inflation.
It has also benefited against the Dollar from the improvement in risk appetite.
Municipal coalition negotiations remain a domestic uncertainty following last week’s elections, so the external support is not removing political risk.
US inflation and the response in global equities will matter next.
The heatmap shows GBP/ZAR down about 1.4% in November, despite its gain over the longer 30-day period.
Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) – 125.86431 (+0.23%)
The Rupee is giving back some ground after last week’s rally, when foreign inflows into Indian equities and lower oil prices supported the currency.
A recovery in AI-related shares elsewhere could slow the diversification flows that had favoured Indian assets.
Cheaper crude remains helpful for India’s import bill, but the currency’s next move also depends on whether those inflows persist.
GBP/INR is still down 1.43% over 30 days, despite today’s rise, leaving INR among the strongest Pound counterparts over that period.
The heatmap separates today’s rebound from the longer-term record.
GBP/USD is slightly lower for the year, while GBP/EUR is up about 4.6%.
GBP/AUD remains down about 3.5% year-to-date despite leading the Pound’s gains over the past month.
GBP/USD: November’s historical record
The seasonality table gives November an average GBP/USD gain of 1.2%, with positive returns in 67% of the completed observations.
The current partial month is excluded from those calculations.
That history is not a forecast: tomorrow’s US inflation figures and Thursday’s UK GDP report provide more direct tests of the current interest-rate outlook.
Key Events Ahead: 9-13 November 2026
- Monday, 17:25 GMT: Andrew Bailey speaks in Zurich following last week’s Bank of England rate increase.
- Overnight into Tuesday: Japan releases September current-account and trade figures.
- Tuesday: Norway publishes October inflation, including its underlying CPI-ATE measure.
- Tuesday, 13:30 GMT: US October CPI, the next major test of December Fed rate expectations.
- Tuesday, 18:30 GMT: Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations on its October policy decision.
- Thursday, 07:00 GMT: UK third-quarter GDP and September monthly GDP, alongside production and trade data.
- Friday: Euro area third-quarter GDP update, US producer prices, and Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales.
