Hello, this is Michi. Today, I sold GBP/JPY during the day and closed the position with a profit of +770 yen. Tonight, I will line up my account history and charts to confirm where I entered and where I exited.
GBP/JPY, 0.1 lot sell
Entry: 11:13:52 JST, 210.078
Exit: 12:52:32 JST, 210.001
Holding time: 1 hour 38 minutes 40 seconds
Result: +7.7 pips, +770 yen
Balance/Equity after exit: 17,342 yen
[Comparing with the chart clock]
Attached chart: GBP/JPY 5-minute chart taken around 20:43 on October 14. The sell was in the middle of the 05:10 candle on the horizontal axis, and the exit was in the middle of the 06:50 candle. In JST, these are the 11:10 and 12:50 candles, respectively. The RSI of 47.48 on the far right is the display at the time of the screenshot, not the value at the time of entry.
In the photo, you can see that the price rose first, the RSI exceeded 70, then the momentum settled in the high range, and it shifted to a decline. This sell position was located during that decline.
However, this is a review at night. I did not know about the subsequent decline the moment I saw it cross 70 in the morning. The exact RSI at the time of the trade and the conditions of the confirmed candle need to be checked separately.
[Exited when it started to recover from around 30]
In the notes I consulted on my phone, there is a reading of price 209.958 and RSI 30.45 around 12:35. I was still holding the position at this time. The exit was at 12:52:32. In the notes around 12:56, it shows 210.008 and RSI 43.76.
This is consistent with the process of securing profit near the flow where the decline settled and started to recover. However, it is unconfirmed whether the values in these notes are from confirmed candles. I still don’t have enough examples to make a rule of ‘always buy back if RSI is 30’.
[Checking stop-loss separately in the records]
In the notes from the consultation, the initial stop-loss price was 210.155. If this is correct, the planned loss was 770 yen, which is about 4.65% of the 16,572 yen before the trade.
The S/L remaining in the account history is 210.001. Since the initial setting and the final display are different, I cannot tell from this image alone at what time it was changed, or whether it was closed by a stop-loss order or manually at the end.
I didn’t reach the target of 30 pips. But whether a profit was made and whether the entry method was good are different stories. This time, I will leave the +7.7 pips as a fact and continue to verify the entry and stop-loss positions.
[Lining up GBP/USD and USD/JPY as well]
Attached chart: GBP/USD 5-minute chart around 20:47 on the same day. It is decelerating after the early morning rise. This is not a document that calculated price changes synchronized with the GBP/JPY execution.
GBP/JPY is related to the movements of both GBP/USD and USD/JPY. This time, USD/JPY also shows a decline after the morning rise. The adjustment in GBP/USD may also have been related to the decline in GBP/JPY while I was holding it.
However, I cannot confirm that ‘both were already falling before I sold’. This comparison is a hypothesis that I will test in the next trade.
The even lower prices in the latter half of the photo are movements after the exit. I will refrain from looking at that and adding it to this result by saying ‘I could have made more if I had held it’.
Today’s lesson is not to decide based only on RSI numbers, but to look at the price shape, higher timeframe candles, and other currency pairs together. I plan to consider new trades at night after the CPI, but this article covers only the one daytime trade I was able to confirm. If there are subsequent trades, I will record them separately.
Tomorrow, I will continue to value the ‘reasons to pass’ just as much as the reasons to enter!
[Consulting with AI. But my “wait a second” side shows up (lol)]
Here, I will honestly write down my habit as well. Even if I consult with AI about the stop-loss position, when it comes time to place the order, I sometimes enter “scaredy-cat mode,” thinking, “Hmm, maybe I should wait and see just a little longer…” Even though I think I’ve decided in my head, my hand stops. I’m a bit of a discretionary trader, Michi (lol).
However, just from the setting history, it’s impossible to tell when this habit appeared in this trade. I won’t conclude that delaying the setting was the right move just because I won.
My future challenge is to confirm the basis for the analysis, then decide on the stop-loss price and loss amount before entering and execute it. I will also verify the AI’s suggestions, and if I feel they don’t fit, I will re-consult before entering. If I cannot set an SL, I will pass on the trade.
I’ve established a flow where I consult via “FX Entry Consultation” during the day, and at night, I carry over the history and charts to this record to review and summarize them in my blog. I’ll keep improving little by little, without hiding my playful hesitation!
