File image Andrew Hauser. Source & credits: RBA, Pound Sterling Live.
GBP/AUD’s brief respite looks to be over as markets bet on a March RBA rate hike.
Well, that was brief: the pound-Aussie dollar exchange rate’s recovery sequence turned out to be little more than a multi-day pause in an aggressive selloff.
GBP/AUD falls to 1.8748 on Wednesday, and in the process breaks below the floor at 1.8862 that had momentarily arrested 2026’s decline.
A brief rebound carried the pair higher into the 21-day moving average at 1.9048, but really we would have needed a break through here to turn the tables and signal that a more constructive setup was emerging.
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Instead, AUD bulls used the pause to reload and have fired the starting gun on the next leg lower in the pair.
To be sure, it’s RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser who’s holding that smoking gun: he gave a resolutely ‘hawkish’ assessment of Australia’s inflation dynamics and the RBA’s required stance.
On a podcast released Tuesday he said he was concerned about the “toxic” impacts of inflation and that failing to hike to control inflation would be a clear problem.
Above: GBP/AUD downtrend is still clearly evident in the daily chart.
Hauser said Australian inflation is rising beyond February’s RBA projections, partly due to potential price pressures from the Iran conflict, which is complicating policy decisions.
Money markets responded to the Deputy Governor’s comments by pushing March hike expectations to a 70% certainty, up from 35% before.
That’s a notable move, and the AUD shot higher in response, proving central bank policy expectations are the conduit through which the impact of the war in the Middle East is carried into FX movements.
“The growing risk of a March hike also implies major risk of a follow‑up hike in May,” says a daily markets note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
According to Bob Savage, Head of Markets Macro Strategy at Bank of New York, “the RBA will remain the most hawkish G10 central bank, which was the case even before the conflict.”
He explains Hauser clearly “emphasised the importance of taking necessary steps to bring inflation back to the 2-3% target.”
The RBA has already raised interest rates this year, putting it on a ‘hawkish’ policy path that means Australia commands the highest yield of its developed market peers.
“AUD resilience is striking – it is worth trying to stay long,” says Kit Juckes, FX strategist at Société Générale. “It has been even more resilient in the face the recent spike in oil prices than we had expected.”
GBP/AUD is pointed decisively lower again.
💥 IMPORTANT READ: AUD Resilience Shines Through Middle East Clouds
