The Indian rupee has been stuck in a narrow range over the last one week. The domestic currency made a new low of 88.80 last week on Tuesday (September 23, 2025). Since then, it has been stuck between 88.60 and 88.80.
The US increasing the H1-B visa fee and strong foreign money outflows from the Indian equity segment is keeping the rupee under pressure.
More fall
The outlook remains negative for the rupee. There is room for it to fall further towards 89 and 89.10 in the near term. This 89-89.10 region is a strong support which can hold on its first test. If the rupee manages to reverse higher from this support zone, there are good chances to see some recovery. In that case, the rupee can rise back to 88.50-88.40 in the coming weeks.
But a failure to hold above 89.10 and a decisive break below it will be very bearish. It can then drag the rupee down to 89.50 and even 90. As such the price action in the 89-89.10 region will need a close watch.
For now, we can expect the downside in the rupee to be limited to 89.10. We can look for the rupee to recover from 89.10 to 88.50-88.40 before witnessing a fresh fall.
Dollar mixed
The US dollar index (97.78) touched a high of 98.60 and has come down from here. This fall in the greenback has not aided the rupee to recover. The dollar index looks mixed and range bound between 96 and 99 for now. Within this range, immediate support is at 97.60. A break below it can take the dollar index down to 97 and even lower in the coming days.
The US jobs data release on Friday will be very important to watch. The US Federal Reserve in its recent meeting sounded more concerned about the slowdown in the US job market. Under this circumstance, the unemployment data release on Friday will be very crucial. The unemployment rate is currently at 4.3 per cent. If the data release this week shows an uptick in the unemployment rate, then that will strengthen the case for rate cuts from the Fed.
Published on September 30, 2025
