MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee, teetering at an all-time low, is expected to open largely unchanged on Tuesday, with the upcoming federal budget and the stock market’s reaction to it likely to dictate intraday direction.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at flat from 83.6575 in the previous session. The rupee on Monday dropped to a lifetime low of 83.6775.
“Expectedly, a new high (on dollar/rupee) did not lead to any sort of pickup in volatility. This to me is yet once more indication of how the Reserve Bank of India has changed the market,” Kunal Kurani, associate vice president at Mecklai Financial, said.
In terms of the budget, “what equities do in reaction to the budget will be most important” for the rupee, he said. At this level on the rupee, it is likely that it is “more vulnerable than otherwise”, he said.
The rupee after having dipped to a lifetime low just after noon on Monday was in a narrow range.
“Expectations that RBI will almost certainly intervene means that interbank does not have the appetite to purse momentum and break outs,” a currency trader at a bank said.
“Anyway, the impact of the budget will not last beyond a day.”
India finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will lay out the federal budget at 11.00 a.m. IST. Apart from the equity market’s reaction, the rupee will be eyeing the fiscal deficit target.
Median forecasts in a Reuters poll showed the fiscal deficit target at 5.1%, matching February’s interim budget.
Indian equities and debt have witnessed robust this month with overseas investors pouring in $5 billion. Whether the budget has any impact on these flows is what will be important for the rupee, according to traders.
KEY INDICATORS:** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.72; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.50 paisa ** Dollar index down at 104.26** Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $82.6 per barrel** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.24%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $218.1mln worth of Indian shares on July 19
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $190.1mln worth of Indian bonds on July 19
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
By Nimesh Vora
