The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate fell to a six-week low last week before recovering as UK political developments, high-impact economic data and the escalating US-Iran conflict drove volatility.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading at NZ$2.3020, virtually unchanged over the week.
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) wobbled at the start of the week as markets were caught off guard by Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s surprise choice for Chancellor. Burnham appointed former Defence Secretary John Healey as head of the Treasury.
Sterling then began to trend lower amid concerns about the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline as Burnham started to outline plans to cut some taxes.
Political developments overshadowed several high-impact UK economic releases, including the latest labour market report and consumer price index.
The CPI figures were mixed and failed to prompt decisive movement in the Pound. Headline inflation cooled more than forecast, easing from 2.8% to 2.6%, while core inflation unexpectedly held at 2.6% rather than slowing to 2.5%.
While GBP was able to recover against riskier currencies as the market mood soured, it struggled elsewhere.
Strong data on Friday also failed to boost Sterling, with UK retail sales in June and the services PMI for July both unexpectedly accelerating.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened at the start of the week, shrugging off weaker-than-forecast trade figures and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The ‘Kiwi’ then extended its gains as New Zealand inflation exceeded expectations, accelerating from 3.1% to 4.1% in the second quarter. This fuelled bets on further interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
After striking a six-week high against the Pound on Tuesday, the New Zealand Dollar retreated through the remainder of the week.
With the crisis in the Middle East intensifying, a deeply risk-averse market mood weighed heavily on NZD and allowed GBP/NZD to recover.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: BoE Interest Rate Decision in Focus
Looking ahead, the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday is in the spotlight for GBP investors this week.
The Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady, which would leave markets focused on the BoE’s forward guidance.
If policymakers indicate that rate hikes remain likely in the coming months, particularly following the recent rise in energy prices, Sterling could strengthen.
Ahead of the decision, political developments could continue to drive volatility in the Pound.
As for the New Zealand Dollar, the latest business and consumer confidence indexes could influence NZD, with the releases due overnight on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
If morale among businesses and consumers deteriorated in July, the ‘Kiwi’ could weaken.
