Pound-to-Franc Carry Trade Still Has Room to Run - Bank of America Forecast

See latest Pound forecasts including against the euro, US dollar and Swiss Franc here.


The Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate has climbed strongly in July, with GBP/CHF trading around 1.0830 after reaching a fresh 2026 high above 1.0880. The pair is up roughly 1.5% this year and almost 1.1% so far this month.

Bank of America believes the GBP/CHF uptrend has further to run, arguing that the pair remains one of the most attractive carry trades in the G10 currency market.

The bank’s quantitative signals have turned increasingly positive for Sterling, while a bullish continuation signal and constructive trend indicators reinforce the case for further gains.

According to BofA, “no major G10 cross offers higher vol-adjusted carry”, making GBP/CHF particularly attractive as currency-market volatility continues to decline through the summer.

Fundamentals also support the trade. The bank expects technology and AI-related merger and acquisition flows to provide near-term support for the Pound.

At the same time, the Swiss National Bank’s “increased willingness” to intervene in foreign exchange markets should restrict the Swiss Franc’s ability to appreciate materially.

Bank of America therefore continues to favour GBP/CHF upside, with positive carry, supportive capital flows and the SNB’s resistance to Franc strength all reinforcing the existing bullish trend.

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