Exchange Rates UK Research’s latest April 2026 survey of major investment banks shows the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to remain broadly supported above 1.16 in the near term, with many banks forecasting a gradual move towards the 1.20–1.24 region through 2027.
The survey also highlights a growing divide between institutions expecting only modest euro gains and those forecasting a much larger structural US dollar decline over the longer term.
Image: EUR/USD exchange rate forecasts chart- survey results May 2026
Latest Institutional FX Polling Suggests EUR/USD Trend Has Turned Higher
The majority of forecasts in the latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll point to EUR/USD gradually strengthening through 2026 and 2027.
Banks including RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank, ING and Danske Bank all expect the pair to trade above 1.20 during 2027, while Nordea remains the most bullish institution in the survey with forecasts extending towards 1.28 longer term.
By contrast, Citi stands out as one of the more cautious voices, forecasting EUR/USD drifting back towards 1.13–1.14 over time.
Overall, however, the balance of forecasts points towards a gradual upward trend for EUR/USD.
That outlook broadly reflects recent market performance.
EUR/USD rallied strongly through April and briefly pushed towards 1.18 earlier in May before easing back towards the mid-1.16s. The pair remains significantly above the lows below 1.05 seen during the 2022 energy crisis and has now recovered much of the broader US dollar strength seen through 2023 and early 2024.
Recent gains have also reinforced the broader trend reversal that began in mid-2025, when EUR/USD rebounded sharply from the 1.13 area.
Dollar Outlook Becoming Increasingly Important
The latest survey suggests the future direction of EUR/USD is now being driven more by expectations for the US dollar than by euro-specific factors.
Markets have increasingly focused on the prospect that the Federal Reserve could move closer to rate cuts during 2026 as US inflation gradually moderates and economic growth slows.
At the same time, persistent concerns around US fiscal deficits and trade imbalances have also contributed to a softer long-term dollar outlook.
Meanwhile, the euro has benefited from improving Eurozone economic data and easing concerns surrounding the region’s energy outlook compared with the disruption seen during 2022 and 2023.
The European Central Bank has also remained relatively cautious about aggressive rate cuts, helping support the single currency.
However, geopolitical risks and global growth concerns continue to generate periodic US dollar safe-haven demand, which has limited the pace of EUR/USD gains in recent weeks.
EUR/USD Outlook: Banks Increasingly Expect Euro-Dollar to Stay Elevated
The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey suggests EUR/USD is expected to remain relatively well-supported above 1.15, with the broader balance of forecasts pointing towards further gains through 2026 and 2027.
Importantly, several banks now expect EUR/USD to stabilise above levels that prevailed for much of the 2022–2024 period, signalling a shift in long-term sentiment towards the US dollar.
For now, the survey points to a controlled upward trend rather than a sharp breakout higher.
But with markets increasingly focused on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and structural US dollar risks, banks appear more comfortable forecasting sustained EUR/USD strength than at any stage over the past several years.
