Euro To Dollar Price Forecast: EUR/USD Pauses Ahead Of US Jobless Claims

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate edged lower to 1.1797 on Thursday, with the pair consolidating near recent highs as the US Dollar steadied following a period of sustained weakness.

DAILY RECAP:

EUR/USD ticked lower in early Thursday trade after briefly testing levels above 1.18 earlier in the week.

The broader move remains driven by the US Dollar.

The pair has advanced steadily over recent sessions as the Dollar weakened on the back of shifting geopolitical sentiment.

Earlier in the week, the Dollar strengthened as tensions around the US–Iran conflict escalated and oil prices surged, triggering safe-haven demand.

That move reversed as expectations of renewed talks improved sentiment and reduced demand for defensive positioning.

In a recent client note, ING highlighted that the Dollar’s geopolitical bounce lacked follow-through, with markets quick to unwind long positions as risk appetite recovered.

MUFG also noted that recent price action reflects a repositioning phase, with Dollar weakness driven by fading safe-haven demand rather than a structural shift in fundamentals.

More recently, the Dollar has stabilised.

Markets appear to be consolidating ahead of key US data, limiting further EUR/USD upside.

The Euro has held relatively firm.

Support has come from rising Eurozone yields and expectations that energy-driven inflation pressures could keep the European Central Bank cautious on policy easing.

In a brief to clients, Scotiabank noted that the Euro continues to find support on dips, although gains remain largely a function of broader Dollar weakness.

Near-Term EUR/USD Forecast: US Jobless Claims and Eurozone Inflation in Focus

For the Euro, attention will turn to Eurozone inflation data and ECB commentary.

Final March CPI figures and upcoming April flash inflation readings will be key in shaping expectations around policy, particularly if energy costs continue to feed into core price pressures.

Stronger inflation outcomes could support the Euro by reinforcing a tighter policy stance.

For the US Dollar, immediate focus falls on weekly jobless claims data due Thursday, alongside ongoing scrutiny of recent US inflation signals.

Markets will also look ahead to next week’s US PMI releases and consumer sentiment data, which could provide further guidance on growth momentum.

Geopolitical developments remain central.

Any renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict would likely lift oil prices and trigger fresh safe-haven demand for the Dollar.

If US data comes in stronger than expected and risk sentiment weakens, EUR/USD could pull back towards 1.1700.

However, softer data and stable energy markets could allow a move back towards 1.1850.

In the near-term, Exchange Rates UK Research forecast that the Euro to Dollar exchange rate will trade within the 1.1700–1.1850 range.