USD vs INR: The Indian Rupee rebounded as much as 1.6% to 93.19 per dollar, against the US dollar in early deals, on Thursday, April 2, driven by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decision to curb banks’ net open positions in the onshore forward delivery market.
In the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at 94.62 against the US dollar and surged to 93.19 in early trade, marking a sharp gain of 151 paise, or 1.6%, compared to its previous close.
Earlier, the rupee had crossed the 95 mark on Monday before ending at 94.70 against the dollar. On Friday, it had hit a record low of 94.84, which led to intervention by the RBI.
According to analysts, the domestic currency remained under pressure due to persistent foreign fund outflows, a stronger US dollar, and rising crude oil prices amid an uncertain geopolitical environment.
“The Reserve Bank of India has tightened FX markets via three steps: capping NOP at USD 100 million, banning INR NDFs, and restricting rebooking. This curbs speculation, reduces arbitrage, and shifts focus to genuine hedging,” said Kunal Sodhani, Head – Treasury at Shinhan Bank.
What’s driving Indian Rupee today?
In a circular issued on March 27, 2026, the RBI limited banks’ net open positions in the rupee to $100 million, with compliance required by April 10.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the US dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.32% at 99.77.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading at USD 106.06 per barrel in futures, marking a rise of 4.84%.
On the domestic equity front, the Sensex dropped 1,312.91 points, or 1.80%, to 71,821.41 in early trade, while the Nifty declined 410.45 points, or 1.81%, to 22,383.40.
According to exchange data, foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹8,331.15 crore on a net basis on Wednesday.
Since the onset of the West Asia conflict on February 28, 2026, the rupee has weakened by more than 4%. Over the fiscal year ending March 2026, the currency has depreciated nearly 10% against the US dollar.
Government data released on Wednesday indicated that GST collections rose around 9% in March, surpassing ₹2 lakh crore — returning to pre-tax cut levels and marking the third-highest monthly tally in FY 2025-26, driven by strong revenues from imports as well as domestic transactions.
Rupee’s near-term outlook
According to Sodhani, USD long unwinding should support INR and ease volatility, though liquidity may tighten in the near-term.
“USD/INR may test 92.50–93.00 (importer hedging zone), with a broader range of 91.20–96.00 amid higher oil and geopolitical risks still continues to weigh on INR,” he added.
Meanwhile, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, believes that the USD/INR pair is currently trading within 93-93.3 support band, reflecting a short-term pullback from its recent high near 94.80 amid RBI intervention to ease depreciation.
“Technically, a sustained move above the 93.60 mark would further reinforce the positive bias and could open the path toward 94.0–94.2. Immediate support is seen in the 93 level. Overall, the outlook for USD/INR remains slightly cautious, with downside bias emerging amid persistent global uncertainty and a gradual moderation in U.S. dollar strength,” Ponmudi said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
