The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has come under renewed pressure and is trading near 3-month lows at 1.3230.
Bank of America (BoA) notes that the Pound overall has been relatively resilient, but expects selling pressure to intensify in the short term and has a target of 1.30 amid Pound vulnerability and dollar gains.
According to BoA, there has been an important shift in perception surrounding the Middle East with optimism over a short-term conflict morphing into fears over a protracted conflict which will inevitably have important market implications, including a prolonged increase in energy prices.
The bank notes that there have been notable losses in the UK bond market with the 10-year yield close to 18-year highs. BoA considers that this will increase unease over fiscal-policy trends and increase Pound vulnerability.
BoA also expects that the Pound will be hampered by political concerns ahead of the May local elections, especially given the risk that Prime Minister Starmer will be under renewed threat.
On the other side of the equation, BoA expects that an extended Middle East conflict and higher energy prices will support the dollar in global markets.
GBP/USD — Key Rate Highlights:
Current Rate: 1.327210 (01 Apr 2026, 08:16 UTC)
Daily Move: +0.22% (+0.002870)
Latest Close: 1.324389 (31 Mar)
March Range: 1.316049 – 1.348056
March Performance: -1.20%
12-Month Range: 1.270810 – 1.385827
Recent Trend: GBP/USD attempting to stabilise after a weaker March, with a modest rebound at the start of April
Disclaimer: For information only, not investment advice. This GBP to USD prediction summarises and interprets third-party research; views expressed are those of the original source and may not fully reflect the source’s complete analysis. Neither the source nor we accept liability for reliance on this interpretation.
