Disliked
If job losses + seasonal adjustment + 60k fudge factor > 0 then = strong. Reality doesn’t matter in the slightest. Reality is irrelevant. They can fake numbers forever and the market will always believe it. The funny thing is how polymarket is always able to predict the “wrong number” that is revised down later.
Polymarket/Kalshi/wagering sites are a joke. Those sites should just be shut down….or disclosed for what they are: wild speculation gambling with no governance. There’s no way to regulate insider trading and I would NEVER bet on there….or trust any odds I see.
How are you supposed to know if someone tells their cousin’s friend about a known outcome and the markets shift on you? So Polymarket finds out and busts the trade. What if you were legitimately in the same trade? You get nothing as well? No thank you.
Sure, the stock market is similar in nature, but at least there are dozens of regulatory bodies theoretically overseeing the marketplace and looking for suspicious activity. Plus, the size is large enough that no one player can upend/control the entire market on a whim (at least in larger pools of liquidity).
That said, I agree with you that the NFP numbers are easily manipulated. Anything, to you point, that the FED needs to put a 60k/month (or 720k/year) fudge factor on just to make educated guesses related to employment numbers is ridiculous.
