About a year ago, the Big Ten published the conference schedules through 2028. Since there are so many teams, most fans knew that it would be possible that the schedules could be unbalanced, with some teams having easier schedules than others. The hope would be that it would balance out over time. But does it?
Even though the rankings of teams will likely change this year, and will definitely be different in future seasons, using the current rankings would at least give us an idea about the relative strength of schedules.
Top 25
Normally we would use the AP poll to determine the top-25 teams. But I’m not sure that I trust the AP poll at this point in the season. Instead, this analysis will use the SP+ rankings. Another reason for using SP+ is that it ranks all of the teams which helps understand the full strength of schedule (see the next section).
To start with, here’s a look at the number of top-25 teams that each team is playing each year (including games played in the 2024 season. This is only looking at conference games. Teams like USC, UCLA, and Michigan have faced top-25 teams in non-conference games (and there will likely be at least one more non-conference game against a top-25 opponent this season) but that is up to each of those teams.
Comparing Top-25 Opponents for Big Ten Teams
| School | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| School | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Total |
| Illinois | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| Indiana | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| Iowa | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| Maryland | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| Michigan | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| Michigan State | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| Northwestern | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 |
| Ohio State | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| Oregon | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| Penn State | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| Purdue | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| Rutgers | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| UCLA | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| USC | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| Washington | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
First, I’ll point out that for this exercise, the top-25 teams in the SP+ are currently: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Nebraska. The one difference between this top-25 and the AP is the inclusion of Iowa and Nebraska (which is in the top-25 in the Coaches, and is #26 in the AP) and that Illinois is not on the list. So, the number of top-25 teams is about the same using SP+.
Before the season started, there were many that pointed out that Rutgers had a relatively easy schedule since they no longer had to play Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State as they had been for most of their time in the Big Ten. And because of those misses, they only play a single top-25 team this season (Nebraska, which beat them).
I don’t remember much discussion about Penn State having an easy schedule before the season started, but they are only playing one top-25 team (Ohio State). Part of the reason their schedule didn’t seem as easy is that the expectation was that USC was a top-25 team; they were at the start of the season, but they currently are not. (They are #27.)
Penn State also has just one (current) top-25 team on their schedule in 2026 (Michigan). Husky fans should hope that UW is a top-25 team by then-and that game will be played in Husky Stadium. USC may be a top-25 team in 2026 as well, so their schedule may be more difficult by then.
Ohio State is playing the most top-25 teams this year. They’ve split (are 1-1) their games against Iowa and Oregon, and they still must play Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan.
Wisconsin is another team that will play 6 top-25 teams, but not until 2028. A lot can happen between now and then.
As you can see, there is a lot of variability in the number of top-25 opponents each team will face each year. Some of that evens out over the seasons. Ohio State, for example, plays 6 this year but just 2 next year. And Penn State goes from 1 this season to 5 next season, back to 1, and then back to 5 in 2028.
There is a total for each of the teams. And you can see that there is still some variability. Indiana has the easiest schedule, playing only 14 of the (current) top-25 teams over the 5 seasons. Oregon, Penn State, and Iowa are next with 15 top-25 opponents. Michigan State has the hardest schedule, playing 21. Purdue, Washington, and Wisconsin all face 20 top-25 opponents over the 5 seasons.
As we’ve seen already this season, playing road games is tough in the Big Ten. Here’s a look at the number of top-25 teams each Big Ten team is playing on the road.
Comparing Top-25 Road Opponents for Big Ten Teams
| School | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| School | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Total |
| Illinois | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| Indiana | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Iowa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Maryland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Michigan | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| Michigan State | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Nebraska | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| Northwestern | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Oregon | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| Penn State | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Purdue | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| Rutgers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| UCLA | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| USC | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Washington | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
Penn State doesn’t play a top-25 team on the road this season. Next season Maryland doesn’t play a top-25 opponent on the road. And in 2027, 3 teams don’t play (current) top-25 opponents on the road: Indiana, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.
UW playing 4 top-25 teams on the road this year; that is the most of any team in any season. And that also contributes to them playing the most top-25 opponents on the road than any other Big Ten team over the 5 seasons: 11.
This look appears to be a little more even since half of the teams play 9 top-25 opponents. But again, Indiana and Penn State have the fewest with 6 over the 5 seasons.
Average
While looking at top-25 opponents is one method of comparing schedules, it doesn’t paint a complete picture. Playing teams ranked #30-#40 is going to be more difficult than teams ranked #70-#80. To get that better picture, here are the average SP+ ratings for each team’s opponents this season, and the next 4 seasons. (Note, smaller numbers indicate more difficult opponents.)
Average SP+ Ratings For Each Big Ten Team’s Opponents
| School | 2024 Avg | 2024 Rank | 2025 Avg | 2025 Rank | 2026 Avg | 2026 Rank | 2027 Avg | 2027 Rank | 2028 Avg | 2028 Rank | Average | Avg Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| School | 2024 Avg | 2024 Rank | 2025 Avg | 2025 Rank | 2026 Avg | 2026 Rank | 2027 Avg | 2027 Rank | 2028 Avg | 2028 Rank | Average | Avg Rank |
| Purdue | 30.8 | 2 | 34.6 | 7 | 35.9 | 8 | 34.2 | 3 | 39.4 | 2 | 35.0 | 4.4 |
| Michigan State | 34.1 | 4 | 31.8 | 3 | 41.1 | 13 | 35.6 | 7 | 34.0 | 4 | 35.3 | 6.2 |
| Northwestern | 33.6 | 3 | 37.8 | 8 | 29.9 | 1 | 44.2 | 17 | 36.7 | 3 | 36.4 | 6.4 |
| UCLA | 24.8 | 1 | 33.1 | 5 | 43.0 | 15 | 41.0 | 13 | 27.9 | 1 | 34.0 | 7.0 |
| Michigan | 34.8 | 6 | 43.9 | 14 | 33.9 | 6 | 34.6 | 4 | 43.9 | 6 | 38.2 | 7.2 |
| Washington | 34.2 | 5 | 43.1 | 13 | 33.0 | 4 | 39.9 | 10 | 36.8 | 5 | 37.4 | 7.4 |
| Minnesota | 38.3 | 11 | 41.3 | 10 | 40.2 | 11 | 27.1 | 1 | 38.8 | 11 | 37.2 | 8.8 |
| Iowa | 45.1 | 15 | 31.3 | 2 | 39.0 | 9 | 33.3 | 2 | 43.7 | 16 | 38.5 | 8.8 |
| Maryland | 35.4 | 7 | 42.2 | 12 | 40.3 | 12 | 38.2 | 8 | 43.8 | 7 | 40.0 | 9.2 |
| USC | 38.1 | 10 | 47.9 | 18 | 31.4 | 3 | 35.4 | 5 | 43.3 | 10 | 39.2 | 9.2 |
| Ohio State | 35.8 | 8 | 44.7 | 16 | 31.3 | 2 | 45.3 | 18 | 40.9 | 8 | 39.6 | 10.4 |
| Wisconsin | 37.6 | 9 | 25.8 | 1 | 49.6 | 18 | 43.4 | 16 | 25.2 | 9 | 36.3 | 10.6 |
| Nebraska | 41.0 | 12 | 43.9 | 15 | 33.6 | 5 | 38.3 | 9 | 43.0 | 12 | 40.0 | 10.6 |
| Rutgers | 45.1 | 16 | 32.0 | 4 | 35.7 | 7 | 41.0 | 12 | 38.1 | 15 | 38.4 | 10.8 |
| Oregon | 47.2 | 17 | 33.1 | 6 | 41.8 | 14 | 35.4 | 6 | 36.4 | 17 | 38.8 | 12.0 |
| Penn State | 44.2 | 14 | 39.1 | 9 | 46.3 | 16 | 40.2 | 11 | 34.1 | 14 | 40.8 | 12.8 |
| Illinois | 43.0 | 13 | 41.3 | 11 | 46.3 | 17 | 42.6 | 15 | 40.1 | 13 | 42.7 | 13.8 |
| Indiana | 48.9 | 18 | 45.1 | 17 | 39.7 | 10 | 42.1 | 14 | 45.9 | 18 | 44.3 | 15.4 |
There is a lot of data there.
First, we’ll start with this season. UCLA has the most difficult (conference) schedule with an average SP+ rating in the top-25. Not only do they play top-25 teams like Oregon and Penn State, but they also play UW (currently #28 in SP+) and USC (currently #27 on SP+). Indiana has the easiest with an average of just under 50. (And again, this just looks at conference games.) UW’s schedule is the 5th most difficult while Oregon has the second-easiest.
Coincidentally, UCLA will also have the hardest schedule again in 2028, Indiana will again have the easiest, and UW will again have the #5 schedule.
In 2025, Wisconsin looks to have the hardest schedule (again, based on current SP+ rankings). USC looks to have the easiest. UW’s schedule is #13, so it should be much easier than this season.
In 2026 Northwestern has the most difficult while Wisconsin has the easiest. (That’s a large swing for Wisconsin between 2025 and 2026.) UW’s schedule will again be one of the most difficult-#4.
In 2027 it is Minnesota with the most difficult and Ohio State with the easiest. UW’s schedule is #10 that year.
The teams are arranged from the overall hardest schedule (at the top) and the easiest (at the bottom) for the 5 years that we have the schedule. And from this, Purdue has the hardest while Indiana has the easiest. This was similar to what was above when looking at just the top-25 opponents. But there are some differences. Wisconsin plays a lot of top-25 teams, but their overall schedule rank when looking at averages puts them at #12 (one of the easier).
One observation that may be difficult to tell from all of that data is that Indiana’s hardest season (2026) is still easier than Purdue’s easiest (2028). That’s quite a contrast for teams that have both been historically in the bottom half of the Big Ten.
Another observation is that the schedule ranks for teams in 2028 is almost identical to the ranks this season. And this is despite the fact that the opponents are not identical, and so the average SP+ ratings are different; but somehow the ranks are the same for all except Iowa and Rutgers (which change one spot each). For example, UW does play teams like Northwestern, Michigan, Indiana, Oregon, and UCLA both seasons, but this year they play Penn State, Rutgers, USC, and Iowa and in 2028 they play Ohio State, Maryland, Illinois, and Wisconsin. UW’s average is 34.2 this year and 36.8 in 2028, but their rank is #5 in both seasons.
Final Thoughts
Again, this is all based on the current SP+ rankings. And we’ve already seen some teams rank significantly higher or lower than even in the preseason, so the strength of schedules will change. But, it should be expected that there will be at least 6 top-25 teams in any season. And with that many top teams, some teams are going to suffer losses and drop in the rankings, so I imagine that the distribution will not be significantly different-there won’t, for example, suddenly be 10 top-25 teams in the Big Ten.
We can also expect several coaching changes in the Big Ten between now and the start of the 2028 season. As we saw this year, that has had a positive impact on some teams (like Indiana) and negative impacts on other teams (like Michigan and UCLA); and other teams, like UW and Michigan State could have their rankings improve after a year or two with their new coaches. That’s just another reason that the rankings for teams will change over the next few seasons.
It was surprising to me that the schedules were as unbalanced as they appear. This year that imbalance could definitely lead to some teams making the Big Ten Championship game that maybe shouldn’t if the schedules were more balanced. But, each team can only play the schedule that they are given, and each team almost always plays a couple of the best teams each season. (The exceptions are Penn State this year and in 2026, and Rutgers this year.)
Looking at the overall schedule strengths, including non-conference games, would have been interesting as well. But UW is one of many Big Ten teams that does not have their non-conference schedule filled out through 2028, so it didn’t make sense to look at that.
UW fans knew that the schedule in the Big Ten would not be easy. They are scheduled to play either Ohio State or Penn State every year (fortunately, not both in the same year), and then other top programs like Michigan, Iowa, and USC at times. Plus they have their annual rivalry game against Oregon which will be a challenge. UW has already proven that they can win in the Big Ten, but to take the step of contending for a Big Ten title, it will take improved coaching and execution by the players, regardless of the schedule.
