I will take a look at one of the majors, though, and that’s the dollar against the Swiss franc. For some time, I’ve been buying the dip and collecting swap, and it finally got blown out on Friday. That’s fine. It doesn’t matter. At the end of the day, though, what does matter is that sooner or later, the Swiss are going to lose their sense of humor about the strengthening Swiss franc. It may not be the dollar to kick off intervention, but there is a very real world in which if the Euro starts to fall against the Swiss franc, then you will see intervention.
I’m not necessarily looking to buy this yet, but I am trying to see whether or not there’s any pushback because we’re at the bottom of this cluster here back in 2011. If you remember, if you’ve been around long enough, that was when we had the Swiss bank breaking of the peg a few years later, but on the way down we had formed this hard bounce. I think this is an area that the Swiss will be watching.
They are known to intervene and of course, there is talk that the United States and Japan intervened on behalf of the yen on Friday. So we may see something like that as well in an attempt to stabilize currencies here. I don’t know if it sets up a trade yet, but if we were to take out the Friday candlestick, I think that would be an extraordinarily strong sign.
